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Jump and Cojump Risk in Subprime Home Equity Derivatives

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  • Bruce Mizrach

    () (Rutgers University)

Abstract

I analyze the risk in the ABX index of asset backed, subprime, home equity credit default swaps and CME housing futures. Using estimators of the jump and cojump components of security prices, I determine that: (1) jump risk was rising throughout 2006, well before any problems in the mortgage market were discussed in the press or policy circles; (2) news explains up to 40% of the jump risk in the AAA rated ABX index and 24% in the BBB-; (3) The jump risk between the ABX and housing futures market is inversely related; (4) the slope of the housing futures term structure is significantly related to the jump risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Mizrach, 2008. "Jump and Cojump Risk in Subprime Home Equity Derivatives," Departmental Working Papers 200802, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200802
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni, Calice, 2011. "The subprime asset-backed securities market and the equity prices of large complex financial institutions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 585-604, October.
    2. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2015. "Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 403-421, September.
    3. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1925-1945.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    5. Ming-Chi Chen & Chia-Chien Chang & Shih-Kuei Lin & So-De Shyu, 2010. "Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 399-422.
    6. Scheicher, Martin & Fender, Ingo, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Working Paper Series 1056, European Central Bank.
    7. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    8. Andrea Coppola & Alessandro Girardi & Gustavo Piga, 2013. "Overcrowding Versus Liquidity In The Euro Sovereign Bond Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 307-318, October.
    9. Tseng Tseng-Chan & Chung Huimin & Huang Chin-Sheng, 2009. "Modeling Jump and Continuous Components in the Volatility of Oil Futures," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-30, May.
    10. Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2008. "The ABX: how do the markets price subprime mortgage risk?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    11. Bruce Mizrach, 2012. "Comment on "Endogenous and Systemic Risk"," NBER Chapters,in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 94-105 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Tseng, Tseng-Chan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Volatility forecast of country ETF: The sequential information arrival hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 228-234.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset backed credit default swaps; housing futures; subprime; jump risk; cojumps;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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