IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Volatility forecast of country ETF: The sequential information arrival hypothesis

Listed author(s):
  • Tseng, Tseng-Chan
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Chen, Mei-Ping

This paper uses daily data to examine whether the sequential information arrival hypothesis is supported in single country Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market, and to model the forecast of ETF's volatility. The work is based on incorporating lagged trading volume into the ‘heterogeneous auto-regressive’ (HAR) model of regression realized range-based volatility (RRV) on realized range-based bi-power variance (RBV) (HAR–RRV–RBV-cum-Vol model, hereafter), in an attempt to improve the overall forecast of realized variance. We find that the forecasting performance of the HAR–RRV–RBV-cum-Vol model is better than other models for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. The results support the sequential information arrival hypothesis in single country ETF market, by which lagged volume is available to predict current volatility.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999315000486
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 47 (2015)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 228-234

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:228-234
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.031
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Bruce Mizrach, 2008. "Jump and Cojump Risk in Subprime Home Equity Derivatives," Departmental Working Papers 200802, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  2. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
  3. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
  4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/903 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2010. "The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 533-555, December.
  6. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
  7. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
  8. Li, Handong & Cao, Shi-Nan & Wang, Yan, 2010. "The properties and mechanism of long-term memory in nonparametric volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3254-3259.
  9. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
  10. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
  11. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Shephard, Neil, 2006. "Impact of jumps on returns and realised variances: econometric analysis of time-deformed Levy processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 217-252.
  12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
  13. Darrat, Ali F. & Zhong, Maosen & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2007. "Intraday volume and volatility relations with and without public news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2711-2729, September.
  14. Levy, Ariel & Lieberman, Offer, 2013. "Overreaction of country ETFs to US market returns: Intraday vs. daily horizons and the role of synchronized trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1412-1421.
  15. Kenneth Small & James Wansley & Matthew Hood, 2012. "The impact of security concentration on adverse selection costs and liquidity: an examination of exchange traded funds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 261-281, April.
  16. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
  17. Gaiyan Zhang, 2007. "A Model of Price, Volume, and Sequential Information," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(3), pages 207-223, December.
  18. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2009. "Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 597-615, October.
  19. Scott W. Barnhart & Stuart Rosenstein, 2010. "Exchange-Traded Fund Introductions and Closed-End Fund Discounts and Volume," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 973-994, November.
  20. Krause, Timothy & Tse, Yiuman, 2013. "Volatility and return spillovers in Canadian and U.S. industry ETFs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 244-259.
  21. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
  22. Shin, Sangheon & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2010. "Exchange-traded funds, persistence in tracking errors and information dissemination," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(4-5), pages 214-234, December.
  23. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
  24. Çelik, Sibel & Ergin, Hüseyin, 2014. "Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: Evidence from stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 176-190.
  25. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  26. Chan, Kam C. & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai K., 2004. "Daily volatility behavior in Chinese futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 491-505, December.
  27. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
  28. Joshy Jacob & Vipul, 2008. "Estimation and forecasting of stock volatility with range‐based estimators," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 561-581, June.
  29. Smirlock, Michael & Starks, Laura, 1988. "An empirical analysis of the stock price-volume relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 31-41, March.
  30. Bannouh, Karim & Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Forecasting volatility with the realized range in the presence of noise and non-trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 535-551.
  31. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
  32. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2013. "On the risk return relationship," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 132-141.
  33. Tseng Tseng-Chan & Chung Huimin & Huang Chin-Sheng, 2009. "Modeling Jump and Continuous Components in the Volatility of Oil Futures," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-30, May.
  34. Darrat, Ali F. & Rahman, Shafiqur & Zhong, Maosen, 2003. "Intraday trading volume and return volatility of the DJIA stocks: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 2035-2043, October.
  35. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
  36. Chaboud, Alain P. & Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik & Loretan, Mico, 2010. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 212-240, March.
  37. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & K.P, Prabheesh, 2014. "Stock returns, mutual fund flows and spillover shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 146-162.
  38. Todorova, Neda & Souček, Michael, 2014. "The impact of trading volume, number of trades and overnight returns on forecasting the daily realized range," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 332-340.
  39. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  40. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2014. "Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-151.
  41. Christensen, Kim & Podolskij, Mark, 2006. "Range-Based Estimation of Quadratic Variation," Technical Reports 2006,37, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  42. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  43. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia & Park, Keebong, 2011. "Intraday patterns in London listed Exchange Traded Funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 244-251.
  44. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  45. Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
  46. Tse, Yiuman & Martinez, Valeria, 2007. "Price discovery and informational efficiency of international iShares funds," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15.
  47. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
  48. Mitch Kosev & Thomas Williams, 2011. "Exchange-traded Funds," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 51-60, March.
  49. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  50. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2013. "ETF arbitrage: Intraday evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3486-3498.
  51. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
  52. Laurent Deville, 2008. "Exchange Traded Funds: History, Trading and Research," Post-Print halshs-00162223, HAL.
  53. San‐Lin Chung & Wei‐Che Tsai & Yaw‐Huei Wang & Pei‐Shih Weng, 2011. "The information content of the S&P 500 index and VIX options on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 1170-1201, December.
  54. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
  55. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. " Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
  56. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2012. "A study of Shanghai fuel oil futures price volatility based on high frequency data: Long-range dependence, modeling and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2245-2253.
  57. Ozgur (Ozzy) Akay & Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2010. "On The Robustness Of Range-Based Volatility Estimators," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 179-199.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:228-234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.