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Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis

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Abstract

We analyze the subprime mortgage crisis: an unusually large fraction of subprime mortgages originated in 2006 being delinquent or in foreclosure only months later. We utilize a loan-level database, covering about half of all US subprime mortgages, and identify two major causes. First, over the past five years, high loan-to-value borrowers increasingly became high-risk borrowers, in terms of elevated delinquency and foreclosure rates. Lenders were aware of this and adjusted mortgage rates accordingly over time. Second, the below-average house price appreciation in 2006-2007 further contributed to the crisis.

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  • Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto van Hemert, 2007. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlsp:2007-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    2. Anthony Pennington-Cross & Souphala Chomsisengphet, 2007. "Subprime Refinancing: Equity Extraction and Mortgage Termination," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 233-263, June.
    3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    4. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    5. von Furstenberg, George M & Green, R Jeffery, 1974. "Home Mortgage Delinquencies: A Cohort Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(5), pages 1545-1548, December.
    6. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary Gorton, 2008. "The panic of 2007," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 131-262.
    2. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 367-384, March.
    3. Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Risk Management and the Costs of the Banking Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 206(1), pages 15-24, October.
    4. Silipo, Damiano B., 2011. "It happened again: A Minskian analysis of the subprime loan crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 441-455, September.
    5. Jerome L. Stein, 2009. "Application of Stochastic Optimal Control to Financial Market Debt Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 2539, CESifo.
    6. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    7. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2008. "Where's the smoking gun? a study of underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages," Working Papers 2008-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen Pence, 2008. "Subprime Mortgages: What, Where, and to Whom?," NBER Working Papers 14083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Alexandr Rubinshtein, 2009. "Some Theoretical Considerations about the Nature of the Present Crisis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 240-242.
    11. Haughwout, Andrew & Peach, Richard & Tracy, Joseph, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: Bad credit or bad economy?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 246-257, September.
    12. David C. Wheelock, 2008. "The federal response to home mortgage distress: lessons from the Great Depression," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 133-148.
    13. Paul Welfens, 2008. "Banking crisis and prudential supervision: a European perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 347-356, February.
    14. Affinito, Massimiliano & Tagliaferri, Edoardo, 2010. "Why do (or did?) banks securitize their loans? Evidence from Italy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 189-202, December.
    15. Patrick Honohan, 2009. "Bank Failures: The Limitations of Risk Modeling," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 8, pages 103-123, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Luci Ellis, 2010. "The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
    17. Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Securitisation and Financial Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 309-332, March.
    18. Jerome L. Stein, 2010. "Greenspan, Dodd-Frank and Stochastic Optimal Control," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(4), pages 55-62, December.
    19. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
    20. Sanders, Anthony, 2008. "The subprime crisis and its role in the financial crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 254-261, December.

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    Keywords

    Subprime mortgage; Mortgage loans;

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