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The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil

Author

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  • Charles W. Calomiris
  • Stanley D. Longhofer
  • William Miles

Abstract

Despite housing's importance to the economy and worries about recent financial and economic turmoil traceable to housing market difficulties, little has been written on how distress in the housing market, measured by foreclosures, affects home prices, or how these variables interact with other macroeconomic or housing variables such as employment, housing permits or sales. Employing a panel VAR model to examine quarterly state-level data, our paper is the first to systematically analyze these interactions. There is substantial regional variation across states, which facilitates our ability to identify linkages among variables. Importantly, price-foreclosure linkages work in both directions; foreclosures have a significant, negative effect on home prices, while an increase in prices alleviates distress by lowering foreclosures. Similarly, employment and foreclosures have mutually negative effects on each other. The impact of foreclosures on prices, while negative and significant, is quite small in magnitude. We demonstrate this by simulating house price changes in response to extreme foreclosure shocks. Even under extremely pessimistic scenarios for foreclosure shocks, average U.S. house prices, as measured by the comprehensive OFHEO house price index (which we argue is the most reliable and useful measure of house prices to use for our purposes), likely would decline only slightly or remain essentially flat in response to foreclosures like those predicted for the 2008-2009 period. This suggests that home prices are quite sticky, and that fears of a major fall in house prices, with all of its attendant negative macroeconomic consequences, typically are not warranted even in extreme foreclosure circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Pablo Zárate Perdomo & Adolfo León Cobo Serna & José Eduardo Gómez-González, 2012. "Lecciones de las crisis financieras recientes para el diseño e implementación de las políticas monetarias," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 30(69), pages 258-293, December.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    3. Te Bao & Li Ding, 2016. "–Nonrecourse Mortgage and Housing Price Boom, Bust, and Rebound," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 584-605, July.
    4. Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2009. "Housing Price Bubbles and their Determinants in the Czech Republic and its Regions," Working Papers 2009/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    5. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    6. repec:eee:regeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:300-311 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ralph Siebert, 2015. "The Impact of Foreclosure on Housing Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 5196, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Rodney Ramcharan & Christopher Crowe, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1085-1115, September.
    9. Scheicher, Martin & Fender, Ingo, 2009. "The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices," Working Paper Series 1056, European Central Bank.
    10. Jihad Dagher & Ning Fu, 2017. "What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust: Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 996-1024, June.
    11. Alm, James & Leguizamon, J. Sebastian, 2018. "The housing crisis, foreclosures, and local tax revenues," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 300-311.
    12. Kashian, Russell & Carroll, Joseph D., Jr., 2011. "The Effect of Sheriff’s Sales on Condominium Sub-Market Property Values," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 0(Issue 1), pages 1-12.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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