IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Real estate prices and bank stability

  • Koetter, Michael
  • Poghosyan, Tigran

Real estate prices can deviate from their fundamental value due to rigid supply, heterogeneity in quality, and various market imperfections, which have two contrasting effects on bank stability. Higher prices increase the value of collateral and net wealth of borrowers and thus reduce the likelihood of credit defaults. In contrast, persistent deviations from fundamentals may foster the adverse selection of increasingly risky creditors by banks seeking to expand their loan portfolios, which increases bank distress probabilities. We test these hypotheses using unique data on real estate markets and banks in Germany. House price deviations contribute to bank instability, but nominal house price developments do not. This finding corroborates the importance of deviations from the fundamental value of real estate, rather than just price levels or changes alone, when assessing bank stability.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1129-1138

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1129-1138
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset prices and banking distress: a macroeconomic approach," BIS Working Papers 167, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce, 2012. "Bayesian averaging, prediction and nonnested model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 358-369.
  5. Funke, Michael & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2005. "Threshold effects and regional economic growth--evidence from West Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-80, January.
  6. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  7. Haynes, Michelle & Thompson, Steve, 1999. "The productivity effects of bank mergers: Evidence from the UK building societies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 825-846, May.
  8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Jan-Oliver Menz & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
  9. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  10. Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 1826, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," Working Papers 122003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  12. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Daglish, Toby, 2009. "What motivates a subprime borrower to default?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 681-693, April.
  14. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Angana Banerji & Haiyan Shi & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2008. "House Price Developments in Europe: A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 08/211, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Balazs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2008. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2008/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  16. Guo, Lin, 1999. "When and why did FSLIC resolve insolvent thrifts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 955-990, June.
  17. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Harrison, Patricia & Ragas, Wade R., 1995. "Financial variables contributing to savings and loan failures from 1980-1989," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 197-210.
  20. Gan, Jie, 2004. "Banking market structure and financial stability: Evidence from the Texas real estate crisis in the 1980s," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 567-601, September.
  21. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
  22. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
  23. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Crocker Liu, 2006. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-352, September.
  24. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
  25. Plamen Iossifov & Martin Cihák & Amar Shanghavi, 2008. "Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/247, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  27. Niinimäki, J.-P., 2009. "Does collateral fuel moral hazard in banking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 514-521, March.
  28. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
  29. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  31. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
  32. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "The identification of technology regimes in banking: Implications for the market power-fragility nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1413-1422, August.
  33. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2001. "Comparing Financial Systems," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262511258, June.
  34. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2003. "Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1615-1647, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1129-1138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.