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Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross-country evidence

  • E. Philip Davis

    (Brunel University)

  • Haibin Zhu

Motivated by the frequently observed link between commercial property price volatility and banking crises, this paper investigates at a macroeconomic level the determination of commercial property prices and the interaction between commercial property prices and bank lending. We develop a reduced-form theoretical model which suggests bank lending is closely related to commercial property prices and that commercial property can develop cycles given plausible assumptions, where the cycles are largely driven by the dynamic linkage between the commercial property sector, bank credit and the macroeconomy. Cross-country empirical analysis based on a sample of 17 developed economies, using a unique dataset collected by the BIS, confirms the model's predictions. An investigation of determinants of commercial property prices shows particularly strong links of credit to commercial property in the countries that experienced banking crises linked to property losses in 1985-95. Further studies of dynamic interaction suggest that commercial property prices are rather "autonomous", in that they tend to cause credit expansion, rather than excessive bank lending boosting property prices. In addition, GDP has an important influence on both commercial property prices and bank credit. The work has implications for risk management and prudential supervision.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 150.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:150
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  1. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  2. E. Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 150, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
  4. E Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2004. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 4797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. E P Davis, 1993. "Bank Credit Risk," Bank of England working papers 8, Bank of England.
  15. William C. Wheaton, 1987. "The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 281-299.
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  26. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  27. Hendershott, Patric H., 1994. "Rental adjustment and valuation of real estate in overbuilt markets: fundamental versus reported office market values in Sydney, Australia," ERES eres1994_138, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  28. Davis, E. Philip, 1995. "Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233312, March.
  29. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
  31. Garry J. Schinasi & Steven Riess Weisbrod & Monica Hargraves, 1993. "Asset Price Inflation in the 1980's; A Flow of Funds Perspective," IMF Working Papers 93/77, International Monetary Fund.
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