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Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain

This study examines the cyclical pattern of retail property development in Great Britain. It develops and estimates an econometric model of the volume of new development starts for retail buildings. Within the theoretical framework proposed, a dynamic specification based on changes in real retail rents and total consumer spending appears to adequately capture the cyclical variation in retail development. Changes in the values of these variables induce new retail construction within two years and an Almon polynomial lag scheme best describes the dynamic distribution of their lagged effects. Investment market influences on retail building development at the national level are not established in this study. There is also some indication of a changing economic relationship between new retail development and retail rents after mid-1995, but this can only be confirmed by appropriate tests when additional observations become available.

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File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n01/v18p197.pdf
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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 197-218

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:197-218
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/Email:

Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm Email:


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  1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  2. A. Ason Okoruwa & Hugh O. Nourse & Joseph V. Terza, 1994. "Estimating Sales for Retail Centers: An Application of the Poisson Gravity Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 85-98.
  3. R Barras & D Ferguson, 1987. "Dynamic modelling of the building cycle: 2. Empirical results," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 19(4), pages 493-520, April.
  4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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