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Estimating Sales for Retail Centers: An Application of the Poisson Gravity Model

The projection of total retail sales for a shopping center development is of critical importance in its valuation, in the making of investment decisions by investors, and to the retail merchants who must make location decisions. In this study, we apply the Poisson Gravity Model to forecast the number of shopping trips attracted to each of the major retail centers in the Atlanta metropolitan area. In the second stage, the estimated total retail sales for all the shopping centers covered in the study, are allocated to the individual centers, based on their estimated shopping trip shares.

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Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 9 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 85-98

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:1:1994:p:85-98
Contact details of provider: Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
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Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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  1. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-38, July.
  2. Okoruwa, A. Ason & Terza, Joseph V. & Nourse, Hugh O., 1988. "Estimating patronization shares for urban retail centers: An extension of the Poisson gravity model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 241-259, November.
  3. Terza, Joseph V., 1985. "A Tobit-type estimator for the censored Poisson regression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 361-365.
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