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Estimating Sales for Retail Centers: An Application of the Poisson Gravity Model

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Abstract

The projection of total retail sales for a shopping center development is of critical importance in its valuation, in the making of investment decisions by investors, and to the retail merchants who must make location decisions. In this study, we apply the Poisson Gravity Model to forecast the number of shopping trips attracted to each of the major retail centers in the Atlanta metropolitan area. In the second stage, the estimated total retail sales for all the shopping centers covered in the study, are allocated to the individual centers, based on their estimated shopping trip shares.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Ason Okoruwa & Hugh O. Nourse & Joseph V. Terza, 1994. "Estimating Sales for Retail Centers: An Application of the Poisson Gravity Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 85-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:1:1994:p:85-98
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    1. A. S. C. Ehrenberg, 1959. "The Pattern of Consumer Purchases," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 26-41, March.
    2. R. Turner & H.S.D. Cole, 1980. "An Investigation into the Estimation and Reliability of Urban Shopping Models," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 17(2), pages 139-157, June.
    3. Terza, Joseph V., 1985. "A Tobit-type estimator for the censored Poisson regression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 361-365.
    4. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    5. Okoruwa, A. Ason & Terza, Joseph V. & Nourse, Hugh O., 1988. "Estimating patronization shares for urban retail centers: An extension of the Poisson gravity model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 241-259, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ming-Long Lee & R. Kelley Pace, 2005. "Spatial Distribution of Retail Sales," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 53-69, August.
    2. Rasouli, Soora & Timmermans, Harry, 2013. "Assessment of model uncertainty in destinations and travel forecasts of models of complex spatial shopping behaviour," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-146.
    3. Wieland, Thomas, 2014. "Räumliches Einkaufsverhalten und Standortpolitik im Einzelhandel unter Berücksichtigung von Agglomerationseffekten: Theoretische Erklärungsansätze, modellanalytische Zugänge und eine empirisch-ökonome," MPRA Paper 77163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Herman J Bierens & Thomas Kontuly, 2008. "Testing the Regional Restructuring Hypothesis in Western Germany," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 40(7), pages 1713-1727, July.
    5. Mark J. Eppli & Steve P. Laposa, 1997. "A Descriptive Analysis of the Retail Real Estate Markets at the Metropolitan Level," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 321-338.
    6. Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 197-218.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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