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Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis

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  • Carlos Medel

Abstract

To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using a unique measure of geopolitical tensions accounting for supply disruptions for the 2001-12 period. I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver jointly with supply disruptions as well as reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available. When considering separately OPEC news, the evidence-- rather episodic--suggest some influence on the oil price expectations consensus plus a feedback dynamics between OPEC news and the level of oil price expectations.

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  • Carlos Medel, 2017. "Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 805, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:805
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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