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From uncertainty to adjustment: the influence of the 2023 Israel–Hamas War on Latin American Stock Market Volatility

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  • Melo-Vega-Angeles, Oscar
  • Chuquillanqui-Lichardo, Bryan

Abstract

This article examines how the 2023 Israel–Hamas War, in the context of geopolitical risk, influenced the volatility of Latin American stock markets via transmission channels such as exchange rate fluctuations and oil price dynamics. Our main findings, derived using a Bayesian panel vector autoregression, suggest that, prior to the outbreak, an increase in the exchange rate and oil prices led to higher stock market volatility; however, after the outbreak, the exchange rate depreciation played a role in reducing volatility. This suggests that Latin American markets internalised the geopolitical shock as part of a broader adjustment process instead of a persistent external risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Melo-Vega-Angeles, Oscar & Chuquillanqui-Lichardo, Bryan, 2025. "From uncertainty to adjustment: the influence of the 2023 Israel–Hamas War on Latin American Stock Market Volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325013868
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108131
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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