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OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Chi Keung Marco Lau

    () (Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK)

  • Seong-Min Yoon

    () (Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea)

Abstract

This paper uses a nonparametric quantile-based methodology to analyse the predictive ability of OPEC meeting dates and production announcements on (Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate) oil a measure of futures market volatility that is robust to jumps. We found a nonlinear relationship between oil futures volatility and OPEC-based predictors; hence, linear Granger-causality tests are misspecified and the linear model results of non-predictability are unreliable. Results of the quantile-causality test show that OPEC variables’ impact on oil futures markets is restricted to Brent Crude futures, with no effect observed for the WTI market. Specifically, OPEC production announcements and meeting dates predict only lower quantiles of the conditional distribution of Brent futures market volatility – a much weaker result compared to when volatility models used in the literature are not robust to jump and outliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Seong-Min Yoon, 2017. "OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration," Working Papers 201754, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201754
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cairns, Robert D. & Calfucura, Enrique, 2012. "OPEC: Market failure or power failure?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 570-580.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "The effect of investor sentiment on gold market return dynamics: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-84.
    3. Brémond, Vincent & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 125-131.
    4. Boudt, Kris & Petitjean, Mikael, 2014. "Intraday liquidity dynamics and news releases around price jumps: Evidence from the DJIA stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 121-149.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "Gains to Producers from the Cartelization of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 238-251, May.
    6. Harvey, Andrew & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2014. "EGARCH models with fat tails, skewness and leverage," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 320-338.
    7. Massimiliano Caporin & Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2015. "Volatility Jumps and Their Economic Determinants," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(1), pages 29-80.
    8. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil markets; Volatility; OPEC announcements;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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