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Volatility jumps and their economic determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Caporin

    () (University of Padova)

  • Eduardo Rossi

    () (University of Pavia)

  • Paolo Santucci de Magistris

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

The volatility of financial returns is characterized by rapid and large increments. We propose an extension of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model to incorporate jumps into the dynamics of the ex-post volatility measures. Using the realized-range measures of 36 NYSE stocks, we show that there is a positive probability of jumps in volatility. A common factor in the volatility jumps is shown to be related to a set of financial covariates (such as variance risk premium, S&P500 volume, credit-default swap, and federal fund rates). The credit-default swap on US banks and variance risk premium have predictive power on expected jump moves, thus confirming the common interpretation that sudden and large increases in equity volatility can be anticipated by credit deterioration of the US bank sector as well as changes in the market expectations of future risks. Finally, the model is extended to incorporate the credit-default swap and the variance risk premium in the dynamics of the jump size and intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Caporin & Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2014. "Volatility jumps and their economic determinants," CREATES Research Papers 2014-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2014-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2017. "Combining Sharp and Smooth Transitions in Volatility Dynamics: a Fuzzy Regime Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2017_05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Seong-Min Yoon, 2017. "OPEC News Announcement Effect on Volatility in the Crude Oil Market: A Reconsideration," Working Papers 201754, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Joao Henrique Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2017. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing. Implications for VIX Forecast Densities," Working Papers 201709, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    4. Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Oil Shocks and Volatility Jumps," Working Papers 201825, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Veiga, Helena & Ruiz, Esther & González-Rivera, Gloria & Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique, 2016. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23457, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Massimiliano Caporin & Eduardo Rossi & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2014. "Chasing volatility - A persistent multiplicative error model with jumps," CREATES Research Papers 2014-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Volatility Jumps: The Role of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 201805, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda & Jan Novotný, 2016. "Shluková analýza skoků na kapitálových trzích
      [Cluster Analysis of Jumps on Capital Markets]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(2), pages 127-144.
    9. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2016. "Combining Markov Switching and Smooth Transition in Modeling Volatility: A Fuzzy Regime MEM," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2016_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility jumps; Realized range; HAR-V-J; CDS;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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