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The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship

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  • Kollias, Christos
  • Kyrtsou, Catherine
  • Papadamou, Stephanos

Abstract

The effects war and terrorism have on the covariance between oil prices and the indices of four major stock markets – the American S&P500, the European DAX, CAC40 and FTSE100 – using non-linear BEKK–GARCH type models are investigated. The findings indicate that the covariance between stock and oil returns is affected by war. A tentative explanation is that the two wars examined here predispose investors and market agents for more profound and longer lasting effects on global markets. On the other hand, terrorist incidents that are one-off unanticipated security shocks, only the co-movement between CAC40, DAX and oil returns is affected and no significant impact is observed in the relationship between the S&P500, FTSE100 and oil returns. This difference in the reaction may tentatively be interpreted as indicating that the latter are more efficient in absorbing the impact of terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:743-752
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Avni Önder Hanedar & Elmas Yaldız Hanedar, 2017. "Ottoman stock returns during the Turco-Italian and Balkan Wars of 1910 -1914," Working Papers 2017/2, Turkish Economic Association.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
    3. Hanedar, Avni Önder & Yaldız Hanedar, Elmas, 2017. "Stock market reactions to wars and political risks: A cliometric perspective for a falling empire," MPRA Paper 85600, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2018.
    4. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "Investor sentiment and local bias in extreme circumstances: The case of the Blitz," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 340-350.
    5. Noguera-Santaella, José, 2016. "Geopolitics and the oil price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 301-309.
    6. repec:eee:finlet:v:24:y:2018:i:c:p:42-48 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Crude oil; Stock market returns; Comovement;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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