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Brutality of Jihadist Terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002-2010

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  • Raul Caruso

    (DISCE, Università Cattolica)

  • Friedrich Schneider

    (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz)

Abstract

We interpret the emergence of Jihadist terrorism in the light of contest theory. Al Qaeda may be portrayed as a contest organizer, providing a ‘prize’ to the best terrorist group. Each group maximizes its probability of winning by launching attacks more destructive than previous ones perpetrated by competing groups. This hypothesis is confirmed by the empirical analysis which shows that the number of victims of terrorist attacks increases compared to number of victims of previous attacks in the same country. An upward trend in terrorist brutality is the outcome of competition between groups. Results also show that Al Qaeda-style terrorism is associated with poverty and underprivileged socio-economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Caruso & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Brutality of Jihadist Terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002-2010," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0061, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie5:ispe0061
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    3. Price Gregory N. & Elu Juliet U., 2017. "Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, August.
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    5. Agbahey, Johanes & Siddig, Khalid & Grethe, Harald, 2021. "Economy-wide effects of cross-border labor mobility: The case of Palestinian employment in Israel," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 964-981.
    6. Goel Rajeev K., 2020. "Do Weak Institutions Affect Recording of Terror Incidents? Evidence from the United States," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 1-11, February.
    7. Thomas Bassetti & Raul Caruso & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "The tree of political violence: a GMERT analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 839-850, March.
    8. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    9. Bassetti, Thomas & Caruso, Raul & Cortes, Darwin, 2015. "Behavioral Differences in Violence: The Case of Intra-Group Differences of Paramilitaries and Guerrillas in Colombia," MPRA Paper 64943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Shuo She & Qiao Wang & Dana Weimann-Saks, 2020. "Correlation factors influencing terrorist attacks: political, social or economic? A study of terrorist events in 49 “Belt and Road” countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 125-146, February.
    11. Azam Jean-Paul & Ferrero Mario, 2016. "Killing for the Sake of Infamy: The Herostratos Syndrome and what to Do about it," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 357-364, December.
    12. Lis Piotr, 2014. "Terrorism, Armed Conflict and Foreign Aid," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 655-667, December.
    13. Elu Juliet U. & Price Gregory N., 2012. "Remittances and the Financing of Terrorism In Sub-Saharan Africa: 1974 - 2006," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-42, July.
    14. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2013. "Why Italy's saving rate became (so) low?," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica ispe0063, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    15. Nicolini Marcella & Sabatini Fabio & Fantazzini Dean, 2025. "Online Interest in Radical Islam and Terrorist Attacks," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 31(2), pages 161-192.
    16. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    17. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
    18. Malečková Jitka & Stanišić Dragana, 2013. "Does Higher Education Decrease Support for Terrorism?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 343-358, December.
    19. Caruso Raul & Klor Esteban F., 2012. "Political Economy Studies on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Introduction," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-10, August.
    20. Belmonte Alessandro, 2020. "Inter-Ethnic Dynamics in the Wake of Terrorist Attacks: Evidence from the 2015 Baga Massacre," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-12, May.
    21. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.
    22. Lis, Piotr, 2018. "The impact of armed conflict and terrorism on foreign aid: A sector-level analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 283-294.
    23. Phillips Peter J. & Pohl Gabriela, 2018. "The Deferral of Attacks: SP/A Theory as a Model of Terrorist Choice when Losses Are Inevitable," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 71-85, February.

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    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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