IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/pepspp/v23y2017i3p13n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Price Gregory N.
  • Elu Juliet U.

    (Department of Economics, Morehouse College, Atlanta GA, 30314, USA, Phone: (404) 681 - 2800)

Abstract

This paper considers if increases in temperature and decreases in rain associated with climate change are a potential driver of Islamist terrorism across states in Nigeria. With state-level Islamist terrorism event, temperature, rainfall and sociodemographic data for Nigeria, we estimate latent variable and count data specifications of the relationship between the number of Islamist terrorism events and climactic variation in temperature and rainfall motivated by how the psychological costs of conflict can be decreased by increases in outdoor ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. Our parameter estimates reveal that increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall increase the likelihood of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria. This suggests that global warming and reduced rainfall induced by climate change are potential drivers of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa, and policy interventions designed to abate anthropogenic climate change can reduce violent conflict that is harmful for economic growth and development.

Suggested Citation

  • Price Gregory N. & Elu Juliet U., 2017. "Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:3:p:13:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2016-0047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2016-0047
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/peps-2016-0047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    2. David Card & Gordon B. Dahl, 2011. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 103-143.
    3. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2013. "On The Theory Of Ethnic Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 161-192, January.
    5. Andrea Beccarini, 2010. "Eliminating the omitted variable bias by a regime-switching approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 57-75.
    6. Simplice Asongu & Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, 2016. "Military expenditure, terrorism and capital flight: Insights from Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 16/018, African Governance and Development Institute..
    7. Daniel Meierrieks & Thomas Gries, 2013. "Causality between terrorism and economic growth," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(1), pages 91-104, January.
    8. Efobi, Uchenna & Asongu, Simplice, 2016. "Terrorism and capital flight from Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 81-94.
    9. Nicole Crain & W. Crain, 2006. "Terrorized economies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 317-349, July.
    10. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    11. George Judge & Laura Schechter, 2009. "Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
    12. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    14. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Climate change, rice crops, and violence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 53(1), pages 66-83, January.
    15. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandier, 2011. "The Adverse Effect of Transnational and Domestic Terrorism on Growth in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 355-371, May.
    16. Walter Enders & Gary A. Hoover, 2012. "The Nonlinear Relationship between Terrorism and Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 267-272, May.
    17. Elu Juliet U. & Price Gregory N., 2012. "Remittances and the Financing of Terrorism In Sub-Saharan Africa: 1974 - 2006," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-42, July.
    18. William H. Greene, 1994. "Accounting for Excess Zeros and Sample Selection in Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models," Working Papers 94-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2003. "Cluster-Sample Methods in Applied Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 133-138, May.
    20. Peter J. Phillips & Gabriela Pohl, 2014. "Prospect theory and terrorist choice," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 17, pages 139-160, May.
    21. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    22. Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2012. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1310-1342, June.
    23. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
    24. Walter Enders & Gary A. Hoover & Todd Sandler, 2016. "The Changing Nonlinear Relationship between Income and Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(2), pages 195-225, March.
    25. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    26. Juliet U. Elu & Gregory N. Price, 2014. "Terrorism and Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of the CFA Franc Zone," Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development, in: Diery Seck (ed.), Regional Economic Integration in West Africa, edition 127, pages 253-267, Springer.
    27. Abimbola Adesoji, 2010. "The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria," Africa Spectrum, Institute of African Affairs, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 45(2), pages 95-108.
    28. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    29. Carlos Barros & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Mixed Logit Estimation Of Radical Islamic Terrorism In Europe And North America: A Comparative Study," Microeconomics 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Gregory N. Price & Juliet U. Elu, 2016. "Can Black Africa afford to be Green Africa?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 48-58, January.
    31. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
    32. Chassang, Sylvain & Miquel, Gerard Padró i, 2009. "Economic Shocks and Civil War," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 211-228, October.
    33. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asongu, Simplice A. & Le Roux, Sara & Singh, Pritam, 2021. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 897-922.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2014. "On the heterogeneity of terror," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-136.
    2. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    3. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    4. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Simplice A. Asongu & Tii N. Nchofoung, 2021. "The terrorism-finance nexus contingent on globalisation and governance dynamics in Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/016, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    6. Matija Kovacic & Claudio Zoli, 2021. "Ethnic distribution, effective power and conflict," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(2), pages 257-299, August.
    7. Cattaneo, Cristina & Foreman, Timothy, 2023. "Climate change, international migration, and interstate conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    8. Hodler, Roland & Valsecchi, Michele & Vesperoni, Alberto, 2021. "Ethnic geography: Measurement and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Joseph Flavian Gomes, 2020. "The health costs of ethnic distance: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 195-226, June.
    10. Bharati, Tushar & Jetter, Michael & Malik, Muhammad Nauman, 2022. "Types of Communications Technology and Civil Conflict," IZA Discussion Papers 15311, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 1903, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    12. Ager, Philipp & Brückner, Markus, 2013. "Cultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 76-97.
    13. Michael Jetter & Bei Li, 2017. "The Political Economy of Opposition Groups: Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 6747, CESifo.
    14. Francisco Pino & Jordi Vidal-Robert, "undated". "Habemus Papam? Polarization and Conflict in the Papal States," Working Papers wp492, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    15. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 217-252, September.
    16. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2021. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 82-127.
    17. Rafat Mahmood & Michael Jetter, 2020. "Communications Technology and Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 127-166, January.
    18. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Valmori, Simona, 2016. "Malaria Risk and Civil Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. De Luca, Giacomo & Sekeris, Petros G. & Vargas, Juan F., 2018. "Beyond divide and rule: Weak dictators, natural resources and civil conflict," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 205-221.
    20. Kyle L. Marquardt & Yoshiko M. Herrera, 2015. "Ethnicity as a Variable: An Assessment of Measures and Data Sets of Ethnicity and Related Identities," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(3), pages 689-716, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; islamist terrorism; Nigeria; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:3:p:13:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.