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Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Price Gregory N.

    (Department of Economics, Morehouse College, Atlanta GA, 30314, USA, Phone: (404) 681 - 2800)

  • Elu Juliet U.

    (Department of Economics, Morehouse College, Atlanta GA, 30314, USA, Phone: (404) 681 - 2800)

Abstract

This paper considers if increases in temperature and decreases in rain associated with climate change are a potential driver of Islamist terrorism across states in Nigeria. With state-level Islamist terrorism event, temperature, rainfall and sociodemographic data for Nigeria, we estimate latent variable and count data specifications of the relationship between the number of Islamist terrorism events and climactic variation in temperature and rainfall motivated by how the psychological costs of conflict can be decreased by increases in outdoor ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. Our parameter estimates reveal that increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall increase the likelihood of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria. This suggests that global warming and reduced rainfall induced by climate change are potential drivers of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa, and policy interventions designed to abate anthropogenic climate change can reduce violent conflict that is harmful for economic growth and development.

Suggested Citation

  • Price Gregory N. & Elu Juliet U., 2017. "Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:3:p:13:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2016-0047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Asongu, Simplice A. & Le Roux, Sara & Singh, Pritam, 2021. "Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 897-922.
    2. Conigliani, Caterina & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena & Tancredi, Andrea, 2024. "Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; islamist terrorism; Nigeria; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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