Habemus Papam? Polarization and Conflict in the Papal States
We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between 1295 and 1846. We assemble a new database using information on cardinals that participated in conclaves during this period, and construct measures of polarization and fractionalization based on the cardinals’ places of birth. The deaths of popes and cardinals provide plausible exogenous variation in the timing of the conclave and the composition of the College of Cardinals, which we exploit to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict by between 2 and 3 percent in a given year and by up to 15 percent in a given papacy. The effect is largest in the initial years after the conclave, to gradually vanish over time. Cardinals’ influence on the politics of the Papal States decreased after reforms introduced between 1586 and 1588. Our measure of religious productivity, however, is negatively and significantly linked to polarization in the post-reform period. These reforms were successful in shifting the effect of divisions among the elite of one of the largest and oldest organizations from violent conflict to religious matters.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0) 2476 523202
Fax: +44 (0) 2476 523032
Web page: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cesare Fracassi & Geoffrey Tate, 2012. "External Networking and Internal Firm Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 153-194, 02.
- Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2011.
"Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1345-74, June.
- Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2009. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 766.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 25 Mar 2010.
- Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2009. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization," Working Papers 377, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2009.
"Democracy, collective action and intra-elite conflict,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(9-10), pages 1078-1089, October.
- Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2008. "Democracy, Collective Action and Intra-elite Conflict," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 844, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Sayantan Ghosal & Eugenio Proto, 2008. "Democracy, Collective Action and Intra-Elite Conflict," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 08-09, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
- Konstantin Sonin & Sergei Guriev, 2008.
"Dictators and Oligarchs: A Dynamic Theory of Contested Property Rights,"
2008 Meeting Papers
1072, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Dictators and oligarchs: A dynamic theory of contested property rights," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 1-13, February.
- Sergei Guriev & Konstantin Sonin, 2007. "Dictators and Oligarchs: A Dynamic Theory of Contested Property Rights," Working Papers w0116, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Michael Horowitz & Rose McDermott & Allan C. Stam, 2005. "Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(5), pages 661-685, October.
- Timothy Besley, 2005. "Political Selection," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 43-60, Summer.
- Daron Acemoglu, 2007.
"Oligarchic Versus Democratic Societies,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
47, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Paolo Malanima, 2013. "When did England overtake Italy? Medieval and early modern divergence in prices and wages," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 45-70, February.
- José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
- Caselli, Francesco & Morelli, Massimo, 2000.
CEPR Discussion Papers
2402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli, 2001. "Bad Politicians," NBER Working Papers 8532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli, 2000. "Bad politicians," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Robert B. Ekelund Jr. & Robert F. Hebert & Robert D. Tollison, 2008. "The Marketplace of Christianity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550717, June.
- Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2012.
"Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1310-42, June.
- Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Debraj Ray, 2010. "Ethnicity And Conflict: An Empirical Study," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 840.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 12 Dec 2011.
- Joan Esteban & Laura Mayoral and Debraj Ray, 2010. "Ethnicity And Conflict: An Empirical Study," Working Papers 482, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Brunell Thomas L. & Dave Chetan & Morgan Nicholas C., 2009. "Factors Affecting the Length of Time a Jury Deliberates: Case Characteristics and Jury Composition," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 555-578, October.
- Jos� G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
- Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Romain Wacziarg, 2011.
"The Political Economy of Linguistic Cleavages,"
Vives discussion paper series
20, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Vives.
- Murat Iyigun, 2008. "Luther and Suleyman," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1465-1494, November.
- Bruce Johnson, W. & Magee, Robert P. & Nagarajan, Nandu J. & Newman, Harry A., 1985. "An analysis of the stock price reaction to sudden executive deaths : Implications for the managerial labor market," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 151-174, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Snape)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.