Habemus Papam? Polarization and Conflict in the Papal States
We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between 1295 and 1846. We assemble a new database using information on cardinals that participated in conclaves during this period, and construct measures of polarization and fractionalization based on the cardinals’ places of birth. The deaths of popes and cardinals provide plausible exogenous variation in the timing of the conclave and the composition of the College of Cardinals, which we exploit to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict by between 2 and 3 percent in a given year and by up to 15 percent in a given papacy. The effect is largest in the initial years after the conclave, to gradually vanish over time. Cardinals’ influence on the politics of the Papal States decreased after reforms introduced between 1586 and 1588. Our measure of religious productivity, however, is negatively and significantly linked to polarization in the post-reform period. These reforms were successful in shifting the effect of divisions among the elite of one of the largest and oldest organizations from violent conflict to religious matters.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CV4 7AL COVENTRY|
Phone: +44 (0) 2476 523202
Fax: +44 (0) 2476 523032
Web page: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Ekelund Jr. & Robert F. Hebert & Robert D. Tollison, 2008. "The Marketplace of Christianity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550717, September.
- Michael Horowitz & Rose McDermott & Allan C. Stam, 2005. "Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(5), pages 661-685, October.
- Timothy Besley, 2005. "Political Selection," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 43-60, Summer.
- Bruce Johnson, W. & Magee, Robert P. & Nagarajan, Nandu J. & Newman, Harry A., 1985. "An analysis of the stock price reaction to sudden executive deaths : Implications for the managerial labor market," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 151-174, April.
- Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009.
"Dictators and oligarchs: A dynamic theory of contested property rights,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 1-13, February.
- Sergei Guriev & Konstantin Sonin, 2007. "Dictators and Oligarchs: A Dynamic Theory of Contested Property Rights," Working Papers w0116, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Konstantin Sonin & Sergei Guriev, 2008. "Dictators and Oligarchs: A Dynamic Theory of Contested Property Rights," 2008 Meeting Papers 1072, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Brunell Thomas L. & Dave Chetan & Morgan Nicholas C., 2009. "Factors Affecting the Length of Time a Jury Deliberates: Case Characteristics and Jury Composition," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 555-578, October.
- Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2009.
"Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
766.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 25 Mar 2010.
- Nicola Gennaioli & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013.
"State Capacity and Military Conflict,"
593, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Gennaioli, Nicola & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2011. "State Capacity and Military Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 8699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nicola Gennaioli & Joachim Voth, 2011. "State capacity and military conflict," Economics Working Papers 1294, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2013.
- Humberto Llavador & Robert J. Oxoby, 2005.
"Partisan Competition, Growth, and the Franchise,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 1155-1189.
- Humberto Llavador & Robert Oxoby, 2003. "Partisan competition, growth and the franchise," Economics Working Papers 730, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2004.
- Humberto Llavador & Robert J. Oxoby, 2004. "Partisan Competition, Growth and the Franchise," Working Papers 109, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
- Joan-Maria Esteban & Laura Mayoral & Marc Le Menestrel, 2010.
"Ethnicity And Conflict: An Empirical Study,"
482, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Caselli, Francesco & Morelli, Massimo, 2004.
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 759-782, March.
- Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli, 2001. "Bad Politicians," NBER Working Papers 8532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caselli, Francesco & Morelli, Massimo, 2000. "Bad Politicians," CEPR Discussion Papers 2402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli, 2000. "Bad politicians," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Desmet, Klaus & Ortuño-Ortín, Ignacio & Wacziarg, Romain, 2012.
"The political economy of linguistic cleavages,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 322-338.
- Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Romain Wacziarg, 2011. "The Political Economy of Linguistic Cleavages," Working Papers VIVES Research Centre for Regional Economics 20, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, VIVES Research Centre for Regional Economics.
- Daron Acemoglu, 2007.
"Oligarchic Versus Democratic Societies,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
47, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Sayantan Ghosal & Eugenio Proto, 2008.
"Democracy, Collective Action and Intra-Elite Conflict,"
CEDI Discussion Paper Series
08-09, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
- Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2009. "Democracy, collective action and intra-elite conflict," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(9-10), pages 1078-1089, October.
- Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2008. "Democracy, Collective Action and Intra-elite Conflict," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 844, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Paolo Malanima, 2013. "When did England overtake Italy? Medieval and early modern divergence in prices and wages," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 45-70, February.
- José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
- Cesare Fracassi & Geoffrey Tate, 2012. "External Networking and Internal Firm Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 153-194, 02.
- Murat Iyigun, 2008. "Luther and Suleyman," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1465-1494.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Snape)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.