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The Effect of Mass Migration on Economic Development

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Abstract

The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the significant humanitarian challenges of the 21st century, and Turkey is among the countries significantly impacted. This study analyzes the impact of the approximately 3.65 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey on economic development proxied by GDP per capita. Since Turkish provinces faced distinctive rises in refugee numbers after the Syrian Civil War, I exploit the differences in the proportion of refugees across different Turkish provinces to estimate refugees' impact on economic development using a difference-indifferences methodology. To address the potential selection bias arising from the refugees' settlement patterns, I employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. Results offer suggestive evidence of a positive medium-term effect and a negative long-term effect of the arrival of refugees on economic development, while the short-term effect is unclear. However, none of the impacts are statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Betul Turkum, 2023. "The Effect of Mass Migration on Economic Development," AMSE Working Papers 2332, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2332
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; economic development; Regional Variation; Difference-in Differences; Instrumental Variable; GDP per capita;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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