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Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium

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  • Carsten Krabbe Nielsen

Abstract

Rational beliefs (in the form of WAMS measures) are expectations which though consistent with empirical observations, may deviate from the true underlying probability measure under which data is generated.We provide results on, as well as a decomposition of, WAMS measures and use this to demonstrate that an agent that adopts a non-stationary rational belief is rationally overconfident.To apply the theory to models of general equilibrium, we introduce the concept of a sunspot rational beliefs structure which can be considered as the exogenously specified part of a state process with rational beliefs. As an application, we consider an continuous state space model where agents make production decision before knowing prices. Under rational beliefs, unlike under rational expectations, mistakes persist even though all agents make forecasts that are statistically consistent with the equilibrium process. Due to the correlation of subjective beliefs brought about by the sunspots, the equilibrium exhibits excess price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    2. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2003. "Floating exchange rates versus a monetary union under rational beliefs: the role of endogenous uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 293-315, March.
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    5. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
    6. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    7. Hammond, Peter J, 1981. "Ex-ante and Ex-post Welfare Optimality under Uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(191), pages 235-250, August.
    8. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    9. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    10. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. John S L McCombie & Marta Spreafico, 2013. "Can only democracies enhance “Human Development”? Evidence from the Former Soviet Countries," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0066, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    3. Giuseppina Malerba & Marta Spreafico, 2014. "The rich and the poor in the EU and the Great Recession: Evidence from a Panel Analysis," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco, 2014. "Unbundling the Great European Recession (2009-2013): Unemployment, Consumption, Investment, Inflation and Current Account," MPRA Paper 53002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2013. "Why Italy's saving rate became (so) low?," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0063, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    6. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2012. "Market's SINS and the European Welfare State: theory and empirical evidences," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0060, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational Beliefs; Rational Overconfidence; Excess Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies

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