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Overconfidence?

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Benoît, Jean-Pierre
  • Dubra, Juan

Abstract

Many studies have shown that people display an apparent overconfidence. In particular, it is common for a majority of people to describe themselves as better-than-average. The literature takes for granted that this better-than-average effect is problematic. We argue, however, that, even accepting these studies on their own terms, there is nothing at all wrong with a strict majority of people rating themselves above the median.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6017/1/MPRA_paper_6017.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6017.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision: Nov 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6017
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Keywords: Overconfidence; Better than Average; Experiments; Irrationality; Signalling Models;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
  • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
  • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
  • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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  1. Camerer, Colin, "undated". "Progress and Behavioral Game Theory," Working Papers 1004, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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Cited by:

  1. Herz, Holger & Schunk, Daniel & Zehnder, Christian, 2014. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-23.
  2. Markus M. Mobius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2011. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1591-1625, 09.
  4. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Røisland, Øistein, 2011. "Why do people place lower weight on advice far from their own initial opinion?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 63-66, July.
  5. Néstor Gándelman & Rubén Hernández-Murillo, 2009. "The impact of inflation and unemployment on subjective personal and country evaluations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 107-126.
  6. Ertac, Seda, 2011. "Does self-relevance affect information processing? Experimental evidence on the response to performance and non-performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 532-545.
  7. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
  8. Rafael Di Tella & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals," NBER Working Papers 17309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2011. "True overconfidence: The inability of rational information processing to account for apparent overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 262-271.
  10. Cruces, Guillermo & Perez-Truglia, Ricardo & Tetaz, Martin, 2013. "Biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from a survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 100-112.
  11. Juan Dubra & Rafael Di Tella, 2011. "Free to Punish? The American Dream and the harsh Treatment of Criminals," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1105, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
  12. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Akiko Maruyama, 2010. "Learning about one’s own type in two-sided search," GRIPS Discussion Papers 10-26, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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