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How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?

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  • Holger Herz
  • Daniel Schunk
  • Christian Zehnder

Abstract

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism is positively associated with innovation, judgmental overconfidence is negatively linked to innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Herz & Daniel Schunk & Christian Zehnder, 2013. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," ECON - Working Papers 106, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Nov 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:106
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Claudia Angel Ferrero & Véronique Bessière, 2016. "From Lab to Venture: Cognitive Factors Influencing Researchers' Decision to Start a Venture," Journal of Enterprising Culture (JEC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(02), pages 101-131, June.
    2. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
    3. Royal, Andrew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "When higher productivity hurts: The interaction between overconfidence and capital," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 131-142.
    4. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    5. repec:eee:finsta:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:17-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Thomas Astebro & Holger Herz & Ramana Nanda & Roberto A. Weber, 2014. "Seeking the Roots of Entrepreneurship: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 49-70, Summer.
    7. Langnickel, Ferdinand & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2016. "Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 121-133.
    8. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Z.V. Kambourova & F.C. Stam, 2016. "Entrepreneurs’ Overoptimism During The Early Life Course Of The Firm," Working Papers 16-14, Utrecht School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation; entrepreneurship; overconfi dence; experiment;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights

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