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How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?

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Listed:
  • Holger Herz
  • Daniel Schunk
  • Christian Zehnder

Abstract

Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism is positively associated with innovation, judgmental overconfidence is negatively linked to innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Herz & Daniel Schunk & Christian Zehnder, 2013. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," ECON - Working Papers 106, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Nov 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovation; entrepreneurship; overconfi dence; experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights

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