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CEO Overconfidence and Innovation

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  • Alberto Galasso
  • Timothy S. Simcoe

Abstract

Are CEOs' attitudes and beliefs linked to their fims' innovative performance? This paper uses Malmendier and Tate's measure of overconfidence, based on CEO stock-option exercise, to study the relationship between a CEO's "revealed beliefs" about future performance and standard measures of corporate innovation. We begin by developing a career concern model where CEOs innovate to provide evidence of their ability. The model predicts that overconfident CEOs, who underestimate the probability of failure, are more likely to pursue innovation, and that this effect is larger in more competitive industries. We test these predictions on a panel of large publicly traded firms for the years 1980 to 1994. We find a robust positive association between overconfidence and citation-weighted patent counts in both cross-sectional and fixed-effect models. This effect is larger in more competitive industries. Our results suggest that overconfident CEOs are more likely to take their firms in a new technological direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2010. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 16041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16041
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    3. Adam, Tim R. & Burg, Valentin & Scheinert, Tobias & Streitz, Daniel, 2014. "Managerial Optimism and Debt Contract Design: The Case of Syndicated Loans," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 475, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    4. Nadiah Amirah Nor Azhari & Suhaily Hasnan & Zuraidah Mohd Sanusi, 2020. "The Relationships Between Managerial Overconfidence, Audit Committee, CEO Duality and Audit Quality and Accounting Misstatements," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(3), pages 18-30, June.
    5. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    6. Lu, Xin & Shang, Jennifer & Wu, Shin-yi & Hegde, Gajanan G. & Vargas, Luis & Zhao, Daozhi, 2015. "Impacts of supplier hubris on inventory decisions and green manufacturing endeavors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 121-132.
    7. Marie-Laure Allain & Emeric Henry & Margaret Kyle, 2016. "Competition and the Efficiency of Markets for Technology," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(4), pages 1000-1019, April.
    8. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    9. Liu, Zhongyi & Li, Mengyu & Lei, Ying & Zhai, Xin, 2022. "A joint strategy based on ordering and insurance for mitigating the effects of supply chain disruption on risk-averse firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    10. Avi Goldfarb & Teck-Hua Ho & Wilfred Amaldoss & Alexander Brown & Yan Chen & Tony Cui & Alberto Galasso & Tanjim Hossain & Ming Hsu & Noah Lim & Mo Xiao & Botao Yang, 2012. "Behavioral models of managerial decision-making," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 405-421, June.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Asghar Afshar Jahanshahi & Alexander Brem, 2020. "Entrepreneurs in post-sanctions Iran: Innovation or imitation under conditions of perceived environmental uncertainty?," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 531-551, June.
    13. Kenneth Yung & DeQing Diane Li & Qian Susan Sun, 2015. "CEO overconfidence and financial policies of real estate investment trusts (REITs)," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 384-406, December.
    14. Corinne Langinier & Stéphanie Lluis, 2021. "Departure And Promotion Of U.S. Patent Examiners: Do Patent Characteristics Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 416-434, April.
    15. Stentella Lopes, F.S., 2015. "Bank performance and corporate culture," Other publications TiSEM d1dd88b2-5eb0-4aa7-be18-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Wang, Yanzhi, 2012. "Financial constraints and share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 311-331.
    17. Rui J. P. de Figueiredo & Evan Rawley & Orie Shelef, 2023. "Bad bets: Nonlinear incentives, risk, and performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 288-310, January.
    18. Denicolai, Stefano & Previtali, Pietro, 2023. "Innovation strategy and digital transformation execution in healthcare: The role of the general manager," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Larbi Alaoui & Christian Fons-Rosen, 2016. "Know when to fold 'em: The grit factor," Economics Working Papers 1521, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2021.
    20. Chen, Yangyang & Podolski, Edward J. & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2015. "Does managerial ability facilitate corporate innovative success?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 313-326.
    21. Yusuke Kinari & Noriko Mizutani & Fumio Ohtake & Hiroko Okudaira, 2011. "Overconfidence Increases Productivity," ISER Discussion Paper 0814, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    22. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    23. Lennart Erixon & Louise Johannesson, 2015. "Is the psychology of high profits detrimental to industrial renewal? Experimental evidence for the theory of transformation pressure," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 475-511, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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