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Overconfidence Increases Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuke Kinari
  • Noriko Mizutani
  • Fumio Ohtake
  • Hiroko Okudaira

Abstract

Recent studies report that productivity increases under tournament reward structures than under piece rate reward structures. We conduct maze-solving experiments under both reward structures and reveal that overconfidence is a significant factor in increasing productivity. Specifically, subjects exhibiting progressively higher degrees of overconfidence solve more mazes. This result shows a positive aspect of overconfidence, which usually has been examined in its negative aspect as an expectation bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuke Kinari & Noriko Mizutani & Fumio Ohtake & Hiroko Okudaira, 2011. "Overconfidence Increases Productivity," ISER Discussion Paper 0814, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0814
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    File URL: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2011/DP0814.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2010. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 16041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Uri Gneezy & Muriel Niederle & Aldo Rustichini, 2003. "Performance in Competitive Environments: Gender Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(3), pages 1049-1074.
    3. repec:hrv:faseco:34310817 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Richard B. Freeman & Alexander M. Gelber, 2010. "Prize Structure and Information in Tournaments: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 149-164, January.
    5. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    6. Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund, 2007. "Do Women Shy Away From Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(3), pages 1067-1101.
    7. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    8. Rachel Croson & Uri Gneezy, 2009. "Gender Differences in Preferences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 448-474, June.
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