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Judgmental Overconfidence and Trading Activity

Author

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  • Gelinde Fellner

    () (Ulm University, Institute of Economics)

  • Sebastian Krügel

    () (Max Planck Institute of Economics, International Max Planck Research School "Uncertainty" and Ulm University)

Abstract

We investigate the theoretically proposed link between judgmental overconfidence and trading activity. In addition to applying classical measures of miscalibration, we introduce a measure to capture misperception of signal reliability, which is the relevant bias in the theoretical overconfidence literature. We relate the obtained overconfidence measures to trading activity in call and continuous experimental asset markets. Our results confirm prior findings that classical miscalibration measures are not related to trading activity. However, misperception of signal reliability is significantly linked to trading volume, particularly in the continuous market. In addition, we find that men trade more than women at high levels of risk aversion, but the gender trading gap vanishes as risk aversion lessens. The reason is that the trading activity of women seems to be more sensitive to risk attitudes than that of men.

Suggested Citation

  • Gelinde Fellner & Sebastian Krügel, 2012. "Judgmental Overconfidence and Trading Activity," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-057, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2012-057
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:amlawe:v:19:y:2017:i:1:p:202-243. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrzej Baniak & Peter Grajzl, 2017. "Optimal Liability when Consumers Mispredict Product Usage," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 202-243.
    3. Andrzej Baniak & Peter Grajzl, 2014. "Controlling Product Risks when Consumers are Heterogeneously Overconfident: Producer Liability vs. Minimum Quality Standard Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series 5003, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Trading activity; Signal perception;

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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