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Confidence Interval Estimation Tasks and the Economics of Overconfidence

Author

Listed:
  • Cesarini, David

    () (Department of Economics, London School of Economics)

  • Sandewall, Örjan

    () (Department of Economics, London School of Economics)

  • Johannesson, Magnus

    () (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

Experiments in psychology, where subjects estimate confidence intervals to a series of factual questions, have shown that individuals report far too narrow intervals. This has been interpreted as evidence of overconfidence in the preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the rationality assumption in economics. Following these results a growing literature in economics has incorporated overconfidence in models of, for instance, financial markets. In this paper we investigate the robustness of results from confidence interval estimation tasks with respect to a number of manipulations: frequency assessments, peer frequency assessments, iteration, and monetary incentives. Our results suggest that a large share of the overconfidence in interval estimation tasks is an artifact of the response format. Using frequencies and monetary incentives reduces the measured overconfidence in the confidence interval method by about 65%. The results are consistent with the notion that subjects have a deep aversion to setting broad confidence intervals, a reluctance that we attribute to a socially rational trade-off between informativeness and accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesarini, David & Sandewall, Örjan & Johannesson, Magnus, 2003. "Confidence Interval Estimation Tasks and the Economics of Overconfidence," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 535, Stockholm School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0535
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; uncertainty; monetary incentives; experiments;

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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