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Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets

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  • Michailova, Julija

Abstract

In this paper relationship between the market overconfidence and occurrence of the stock-prices’ bubbles is investigated. Sixty participants traded in ten experimental markets of the two types: rational and overconfident. Markets are constructed on the basis of subjects’ overconfidence, measured in the administered pre-experimental psychological test sessions. The most overconfident subjects form overconfident markets, and the least overconfident – rational markets. Empirical evidence presented in the paper refines differences between market outcomes in the experimental treatments and suggests the connection between market overconfidence and market outcomes. Prices in rational markets tend to track the fundamental asset value more accurately than prices in overconfident markets, and are significantly lower and less volatile than the average overconfident prices. Strong positive correlation between market outcomes and overconfidence measures draws conclusion, that an increase in market overconfidence is associated with the increase in average price and trading activity. Large and significant correlation between bubble measures and measures of overconfidence provide additional evidence that overconfidence has significant effect on price and trading behavior in experimental asset markets.

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  • Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26388
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Quant Skills, Behavioral Biases and Intuition on Trader Performance," Working Papers 15-17, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    2. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Giovanni Ferri & Matteo Ploner & Matteo Rizzolli, 2016. "Trading Fast and Slow: The Role Of Deliberation In Experimental Financial Markets," CERBE Working Papers wpC07, CERBE Center for Relationship Banking and Economics.
    4. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Behavioral Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Traders' Confidence in their Price Forecasts," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    5. repec:spt:apfiba:v:8:y:2018:i:3:f:8_3_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kocher, Martin G. & Lucks, Konstantin E. & Schindler, David, 2016. "Unleashing Animal Spirits - Self-Control and Overpricing in Experimental Asset Markets," Discussion Papers in Economics 27572, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Dickinson, David L. & Chaudhuri, Ananish & Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2017. "Trading While Sleepy? Circadian Mismatch and Excess Volatility in a Global Experimental Asset Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10984, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their price forecasts ," Post-Print hal-01712301, HAL.
    9. Peiran Jiao & Amos Nadler, 2016. "The Bull of Wall Street: Experimental Analysis of Testosterone and Asset Trading," Economics Series Working Papers 806, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Mike Farjam & Oliver Kirchkamp, 2015. "Bubbles in Hybrid Markets - How Expectations about Algorithmic Trading Affect Human Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 5631, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. repec:wsi:acsxxx:v:20:y:2017:i:02n03:n:s0219525917500059 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Behavioral Uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their Price forecasts," Working Papers halshs-01622466, HAL.
    13. Langnickel, Ferdinand & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2016. "Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 121-133.
    14. Stefan Palan, 2013. "A Review of Research into Smith, Suchanek and Williams Markets," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2013-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; price bubbles; experimental asset market.;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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