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Behavioral Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Traders' Confidence in their Price Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuyuki Hanaki

    (Université Côte d'Azur
    GREDEG-CNRS
    IUF)

  • Eizo Akiyama

    (University of Tsukuba, Japan)

  • Ryuichiro Ishikawa

    (University of Tsukuba, Japan)

Abstract

By how much does the presence of behavioral uncertainty in an experimental asset market reduce subjects' confidence in their price forecasts? An incentivized interval forecast elicitation method is employed to answer this question. Each market consists of six traders, and the value of dividends is known. Two treatments are considered: six human traders (6H), and one human interacting with five computer traders whose behavior is known (1H5C). We find that while the deviation of the initial price forecasts from the fundamental value is significantly smaller in the 1H5C treatment than in the 6H treatment, the average confidence regarding the forecasts is not. We further analyze the relationships between subjects' confidence in their forecasts and their trading behavior, as well as their trading performance, in the 6H treatment. While subjects' high confidence in their short-term forecasts shows a negative correlation with their trading performance, high confidence in their long-term forecasts shows a positive correlation with trading performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Behavioral Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Traders' Confidence in their Price Forecasts," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2017-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Roulund, Rasmus, 2019. "Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 161, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. Yin, Xile & Li, Jianbiao & Bao, Te, 2019. "Does overconfidence promote cooperation? Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 119-133.
    3. A. Penalver & N. Hanaki & E. Akiyama & Y. Funaki & R. Ishikawa, 2017. "A Quantitative Easing Experiment," Working papers 651, Banque de France.
    4. Hubert J. Kiss & Laszlo A. Koczy & Agnes Pinter & Balazs R. Sziklai, 2019. "Does risk sorting explain bubbles?," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1905, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    5. Adrian Penalver, Nobuyuki Hanaki, Eizo Akiyama, Yukihiko Funaki, Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "An Experimental Analysis Of The Effect Of Quantitative Easing," Working papers 684, Banque de France.
    6. Bao, Te & Zong, Jichuan, 2019. "The impact of interest rate policy on individual expectations and asset bubbles in experimental markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price forecasts; interval elicitation; experimental asset markets; behavioral uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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