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Managerial Miscalibration

Author

Listed:
  • Ben-David, Itzhak

    (Ohio State University)

  • Graham, John R.

    (Duke University)

  • Harvey, Campbell R.

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Miscalibration is a form of overconfidence examined in both psychology and economics. Although it is often analyzed in lab experiments, there is scant evidence about the effects of miscalibration in practice. We test whether top corporate executives are miscalibrated, and study the determinants of their miscalibration. We study a unique panel of over 11,600 probability distributions provided by top financial executives and spanning nearly a decade of stock market expectations. Our results show that financial executives are severely miscalibrated: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only 33% of the time. We show that miscalibration improves following poor market performance periods because forecasters extrapolate past returns when forming their lower forecast bound ("worst case scenario"), while they do not update the upper bound ("best case scenario") as much. Finally, we link stock market miscalibration to miscalibration about own-firm project forecasts and increased corporate investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-David, Itzhak & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "Managerial Miscalibration," Working Paper Series 2010-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2010-12
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    File URL: http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/dice/papers/2010/2010-12.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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