It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on dificult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent miscon?dence is problematic. We argue, however, that this behaviour is consistent with purely rational Bayesian updaters. In fact, better-than-average data by itself cannot be used to show overcon?dence; we indicate which type of data can be used. Our theory is consistent with empirical patterns found in the literature.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 79 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/access/ordering-back-issues Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hanming Fang & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2003.
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1422, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2009.
"Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 229-251, 01.
- Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2006. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Working Papers in Economics 06/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007.
6017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
- Jean-Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra, 2008. "Overconfidence," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 122247000000002148, www.najecon.org.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 8879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 5505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jean Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra, 2008. "Overconfidence?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002142, David K. Levine.
- Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
- Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004.
"The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence,"
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)
dp-292, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006. "The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
- Bernardo, Antonio & Welch, Ivo, 1997.
"On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs,"
University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management
qt6668s4pz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, 09.
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1307, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Antonio Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm211, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2003.
- Diego Garcia & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urosevic, 2005.
"Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
11, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
- Diego Garcia & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urosevic, 2004. "Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents," Economics Working Papers 786, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005.
"Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
- Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004. "Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," IDEI Working Papers 259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Burks, Stephen V. & Carpenter, Jeffrey P. & Götte, Lorenz & Rustichini, Aldo, 2010. "Overconfidence is a Social Signaling Bias," IZA Discussion Papers 4840, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006.
"Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
- Lin Peng & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning," NBER Working Papers 11400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Juan D Carrillo & Isabelle Brocas, 2007. "Systematic errors in decision-making," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001473, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
- repec:bla:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:2:p:287-312 is not listed on IDEAS
- Francesco Squintani & Alvaro Sandroni, 2007.
"Overconfidence, Insurance and Paternalism,"
Economics Discussion Papers
643, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:79:y:2011:i:5:p:1591-1625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.