It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on dificult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent miscon?dence is problematic. We argue, however, that this behaviour is consistent with purely rational Bayesian updaters. In fact, better-than-average data by itself cannot be used to show overcon?dence; we indicate which type of data can be used. Our theory is consistent with empirical patterns found in the literature.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Prudencio de Pena 2440, Montevideo 11600|
Web page: http://www.um.edu.uy/cee/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007.
6017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
- Jean-Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra, 2008. "Overconfidence," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 122247000000002148, www.najecon.org.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 5505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jean Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra, 2008. "Overconfidence?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002142, David K. Levine.
- Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 8879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2009.
"Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 229-251, 01.
- Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2006. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Working Papers in Economics 06/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Hanming Fang & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2004.
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm386, Yale School of Management.
- Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Mazurier, Karine & Pouget, Sébastien, 2004.
"Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market,"
IDEI Working Papers
259, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
- Bernardo, Antonio & Welch, Ivo, 1997.
"On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs,"
University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management
qt6668s4pz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, 09.
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1307, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Antonio Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm211, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2003.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006.
"The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
- Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-292, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006.
"Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
- Lin Peng & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning," NBER Working Papers 11400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007.
"Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents,"
Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
- Diego Garcia & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urosevic, 2005. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 11, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Diego Garcia & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urosevic, 2004. "Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents," Economics Working Papers 786, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Burks, Stephen V. & Carpenter, Jeffrey P. & Götte, Lorenz & Rustichini, Aldo, 2010. "Overconfidence is a Social Signaling Bias," IZA Discussion Papers 4840, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Juan D Carrillo & Isabelle Brocas, 2007. "Systematic errors in decision-making," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001473, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Alvaro Sandroni & Francesco Squintani, 2007. "Overconfidence, Insurance, and Paternalism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1994-2004, December.
- Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
- Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
- Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnt:wpaper:1106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Juan José Irisarri)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.