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Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

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  • Diego Garcia
  • Francesco Sangiorgi
  • Branko Urosevic

Abstract

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not a ect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders’ expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Garcia & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urosevic, 2004. "Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents," Economics Working Papers 786, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:786
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    15. Laura Abrardi & Luca Colombo & Piero Tedeschi, 2019. "The Gains of Ignoring Risk: Insurance with Better Informed Principals," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def084, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    16. Ouzan, Samuel, 2020. "Loss aversion and market crashes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 70-86.
    17. Bertrand BLANCHETON & Yves JEGOUREL, 2009. "Sovereign wealth funds: toward a new state capitalism? (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2009-04, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    18. Cafferata, Fernando G. & Domínguez, Patricio & Scartascini, Carlos, 2023. "Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12816, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    20. Indy Bernoster & Cornelius A. Rietveld & A. Roy Thurik & Olivier Torrès, 2018. "Overconfidence, Optimism and Entrepreneurship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, June.
    21. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partially revealing equilibria; overconfidence; rational expectations; information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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