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Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

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  • Diego Garcia
  • Francesco Sangiorgi
  • Branko Urosevic

Abstract

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not a ect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders’ expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Garcia & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urosevic, 2004. "Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents," Economics Working Papers 786, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:786
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    Cited by:

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    2. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 6017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
    3. Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1591-1625, September.
    4. Blancheton, Bertrand & Jégourel, Yves, 2009. "Les fonds souverains : un nouveau mode de régulation du capitalisme financier ?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 5.
    5. Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Jean-Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra & Don A. Moore, 2015. "Does The Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: Two Experiments," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 293-329, April.
    7. Yousra Trichilli & Sahbi Gaadane & Mouna Boujelbène Abbes & Afif Masmoudi, 2025. "Behavioural explanations of Expectile VaR forecasting and dynamic hedging strategies for downside risk during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Insights from financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 44-70, January.
    8. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2021. "Liquidity and short-run predictability: Evidence from international stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Luca Rigotti & Matthew Ryan & Rhema Vaithianathan, 2011. "Optimism and firm formation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 46(1), pages 1-38, January.
    10. Cafferata, Fernando G. & Domínguez, Patricio & Scartascini, Carlos, 2023. "Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12816, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Qingbin Gong & Xundi Diao, 2022. "Bounded rationality, asymmetric information and mispricing in financial markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(1), pages 235-264, July.
    13. Ko, K. Jeremy & (James) Huang, Zhijian, 2007. "Arrogance can be a virtue: Overconfidence, information acquisition, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 529-560, May.
    14. Zhou, Deqing, 2013. "Irrational confidence, imperfect and long-lived information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 383-405.
    15. Mladen Stamenković, 2023. "Where Did All The Papers Go? A Bibliometric Overview Of Publications In Economics From Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(236), pages 29-50, January –.
    16. Shuyu Zhang & Xuanyu Zhou & Huifeng Pan & Junyi Jia, 2019. "Cryptocurrency, confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1445-1468, March.
    17. Laura Abrardi & Luca Colombo & Piero Tedeschi, 2019. "The Gains of Ignoring Risk: Insurance with Better Informed Principals," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def084, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    18. Ouzan, Samuel, 2020. "Loss aversion and market crashes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 70-86.
    19. Bertrand BLANCHETON & Yves JEGOUREL, 2009. "Sovereign wealth funds: toward a new state capitalism? (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2009-04, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    20. Alan Schwartz, 2008. "How Much Irrationality Does the Market Permit?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 131-159, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partially revealing equilibria; overconfidence; rational expectations; information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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