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Optimal economic institutions under rational overconfidence, with applications to the choice of exchange rate regime

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  • Carsten K. Nielsen

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  • Carsten K. Nielsen, 2009. "Optimal economic institutions under rational overconfidence, with applications to the choice of exchange rate regime," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(4), pages 375-407.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijethy:v:5:y:2009:i:4:p:375-407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    2. Stanley Wilkes Black, 2007. "The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty in the Forward Discount Bias," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 115(3), pages 327-364.
    3. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2003. "Floating exchange rates versus a monetary union under rational beliefs: the role of endogenous uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 293-315, March.
    4. Stephen Ching & Michael B. Devereux, 2003. "Mundell Revisited: a Simple Approach to the Costs and Benefits of a Single Currency Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 674-691, September.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    6. Richard Harris, 1978. "Ex-Post Efficiency and Resource Allocation Under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 427-436.
    7. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    9. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-259, March.
    10. Hammond, Peter J, 1981. "Ex-ante and Ex-post Welfare Optimality under Uncertainty," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(191), pages 235-250, August.
    11. Sheshinski, Eytan, 2000. "Optimal Policy to Influence Individual Choice Probabilities," MPRA Paper 55490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2002.
    12. Harris, Richard & Olewiler, Nancy, 1979. "The Welfare Economics of Ex Post Optimality," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 46(182), pages 137-147, May.
    13. John Kareken & Neil Wallace, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-222.
    14. Goldberg, Michael D & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Imperfect Knowledge and Behaviour in the Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 869-893, July.
    15. Nielsen Carsten K, 2007. "Sunspot Rational Beliefs Structures, Equilibria and Excess Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, May.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    17. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    18. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 1996. "Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(3), pages 399-422.
    19. Ross M. Starr, 1973. "Optimal Production and Allocation under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 81-95.
    20. Carsten Nielsen, 2009. "Non-stationary, stable Markov processes on a continuous state space," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(3), pages 473-496, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    2. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    3. John S L McCombie & Marta Spreafico, 2013. "Can only democracies enhance “Human Development”? Evidence from the Former Soviet Countries," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0066, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    5. Carsten Nielsen, 2011. "Price stabilizing, Pareto improving policies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 459-500, June.
    6. Rieger, Jörg, 2014. "Financial Transaction Tax and Financial Market Stability with Diverse Beliefs," Working Papers 0563, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Giuseppina Malerba & Marta Spreafico, 2014. "The rich and the poor in the EU and the Great Recession: Evidence from a Panel Analysis," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Hiroyuki Nakata, 2013. "Welfare effects of short-sale constraints under heterogeneous beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(2), pages 283-314, June.
    9. Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco, 2014. "Unbundling the Great European Recession (2009-2013): Unemployment, Consumption, Investment, Inflation and Current Account," MPRA Paper 53002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2013. "Why Italy's saving rate became (so) low?," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0063, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    11. Luigi Pierfranco Campiglio, 2012. "Market's SINS and the European Welfare State: theory and empirical evidences," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Politica Economica ispe0060, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Maurizio MOTOLESE & NAKATA Hiroyuki, 2016. "Endogenous Fluctuations and Social Welfare under Credit Constraints and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion papers 16082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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