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Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation

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  • Ismail, Aisha
  • Amjad, Shehla

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of terrorism in the context of Pakistan. The determinants of terrorism include various socio-economic variables like GDP per capita, unemployment, political rights, inflation, poverty, inequality and literacy level. A long-run relationship between the variables is analyzed by applying Johansen co-integration technique. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is applied to determine the stability of the long run relationship between terrorism and various variables and also to streamline the short-run and long run impacts of the variables on terrorism. In general, the results revealed that there exists a long run relationship between various social and economic variables and terrorism while the results of ECM revealed that about 89% convergence towards equilibrium takes place every year. Similarly, important results are obtained by short run and long run elasticities estimated under the Error Correction Model. Impulse response analysis reveals that the impacts of one standard deviation shock given to random disturbances on the systems of variables have mixed results. Some variables have increasing trend over the time period, some have decreasing trends, while some have fluctuating and cyclical trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail, Aisha & Amjad, Shehla, 2014. "Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 320-331.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:320-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    2. Parlow, Anton, 2017. "Political Violence, Domestic Violence, and Children's Health: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0671-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sehar SALEEM & Saima SARWAR, 2015. "DRIVERS OF TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN:An Evidence through Institutional Prism," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 193-211.
    5. Serfraz, Ayesha, 2017. "What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism," Discussion Papers 59, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    6. repec:eee:renene:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:459-467 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Haider, Murtaza & Anwar, Amar, 2014. "Impact of terrorism on FDI flows to Pakistan," MPRA Paper 57165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Park, Donghyun & Kim, Jung Suk & Khan, Alam, 2015. "The economic impact of terrorism: A new model and its application to Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1065-1080.
    9. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Zakaria & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Tanveer Ahmed & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2016. "Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 179-194, May.
    10. Chuku Chuku & Isip Ima-Abasi & Abang Dominic, 2017. "Working Paper 284 - Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria," Working Paper Series 2410, African Development Bank.
    11. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Khan, Waqas Ahmed, 2017. "Do Workers’ Remittances Increase Terrorism? Evidence from South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 86745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    12. Bukhari, Naseem & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "An empirical investigation of causal linkages between domestic terrorism and macroeconomic variables: a case for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 69768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:eee:iburev:v:28:y:2019:i:2:p:344-358 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Syed Muhammad Rizvi & Marie-Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2019. "Conflict, growth and human development. An empirical analysis of Pakistan," Working Papers halshs-02018948, HAL.
    15. repec:eee:jbrese:v:98:y:2019:i:c:p:430-440 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Determinants; Socio-economic; Cointegration; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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