IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v28y2016icp184-202.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mnasri, Ayman
  • Nechi, Salem

Abstract

We use an event study methodology alongside an improved bootstrapping test to evaluate the impact of terrorist attacks on the volatility of stock markets in 12 MENA countries, and test for regional financial integration. Results show that the impact of terrorist attacks on financial markets' volatility lasts about 20 trading days, which is considered to be long compared to the term effect of similar events in developed markets. Moreover, we find evidence of regional financial integration. Our robustness check shows that the bootstrapping approach is more robust, and that theoretical p-values might be misleading if underlying assumptions are violated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:28:y:2016:i:c:p:184-202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2016.08.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014116300413
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Syed Abul, Basher & Salem, Nechi & Hui, Zhu, 2014. "Dependence patterns across Gulf Arab stock markets: a copula approach," MPRA Paper 56566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    3. Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2016. "Are stock markets efficient in the face of fear? Evidence from the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 306-310.
    4. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Marashdeh, Hazem, 2005. "Stock Market Integration in the MENA Region: An Application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economics Working Papers wp05-27, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Apostolos Stagiannis, 2010. "Armed Conflicts And Capital Markets: The Case Of The Israeli Military Offensive In The Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 357-365.
    7. Imbierowicz, Björn & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2013. "Wealth transfer effects between stockholders and bondholders," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 23-43.
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 671-684, November.
    9. Haitsma, Reinder & Unalmis, Deren & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 101-116.
    10. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "The 11/13 Paris terrorist attacks and stock prices: The case of the international defense industry," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-192.
    11. Bruno Frey & Marcel Kucher, 2001. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect the Second World War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 317-333, August.
    12. Bentes, Sonia R., 2016. "Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 149-160.
    13. Athanassiou, Emmanuel & Kollias, Christos & Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2006. "Dynamic volatility and external security related shocks: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 411-424, December.
    14. Yu, Jung-Suk & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2008. "Global and regional integration of the Middle East and North African (MENA) stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 482-504, August.
    15. Horowitz, Joel L., 1994. "Bootstrap-based critical values for the information matrix test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 395-411, April.
    16. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    17. Scholtens, Bert & Boersen, Arieke, 2011. "Stocks and energy shocks: The impact of energy accidents on stock market value," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1698-1702.
    18. Soosung Hwang & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2006. "Small sample properties of GARCH estimates and persistence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 473-494.
    19. Talla Al-Deehani & Imad A. Moosa, 2006. "Volatility Spillover in Regional Emerging Stock Markets: A Structural Time-Series Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 78-89, July.
    20. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1999. "The Size Distortion Of Bootstrap Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 361-376, June.
    21. Elie I. Bouri & Georges Yahchouchi, 2014. "Do return and volatility traverse the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) stock markets borders?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 317 - 344, March.
    22. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
    23. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    24. Jimmy E. Hilliard & Robert Savickas, 2002. "On the Statistical Significance of Event Effects on Unsystematic Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 447-462, December.
    25. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    26. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2004. "Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 435-446, June.
    27. Faheem Aslam & Hyoung-Goo Kang, 2015. "How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 634-648, December.
    28. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "World War II as reflected on capital markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 187-191, November.
    29. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
    30. Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
    31. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    32. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
    33. Kolaric, S. & Schiereck, D., 2016. "Are stock markets efficient in the face of fear? Evidence from the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80721, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    34. Chaker Aloui & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2611-2622, August.
    35. Wang, Shen & Mayes, David G., 2012. "Monetary policy announcements and stock reactions: An international comparison," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 145-164.
    36. Oana M Croitoru & R. B. Johnston, 2005. "The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/60, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Wang, Jun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-19.
    38. Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Duygun, Meryem & Mamedshakhova, Djamila, 2016. "Do rating grades convey important information: German evidence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 334-344.
    39. Fiordelisi, Franco & Galloppo, Giuseppe & Ricci, Ornella, 2014. "The effect of monetary policy interventions on interbank markets, equity indices and G-SIFIs during financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 49-61.
    40. Naceur Essaddam & Ayman Mnasri, 2015. "Event-study volatility and bootstrapping: an international study," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 209-213, February.
    41. Assaf Ata, 2003. "Transmission of Stock Price Movements: The Case of GCC Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 73-92, August.
    42. Carpentier, Cécile & Suret, Jean-Marc, 2015. "Stock market and deterrence effect: A mid-run analysis of major environmental and non-environmental accidents," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-18.
    43. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
    44. Konstantinos Drakos, 2010. "The determinants of terrorist shocks' cross-market transmission," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 147-163, March.
    45. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo‐Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114, March.
    46. Günster, Andrea & van Dijk, Mathijs, 2016. "The impact of European antitrust policy: Evidence from the stock market," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-33.
    47. Essaddam, Naceur & Karagianis, John M., 2014. "Terrorism, country attributes, and the volatility of stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 87-100.
    48. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2016. "Terrorist attack assessment: Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 553-571.
    49. Taufiq Choudhry, 2005. "September 11 and time-varying beta of United States companies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1227-1242.
    50. Elie Bouri & Georges Azzi, 2014. "On the Dynamic Transmission of Mean and Volatility across the Arab Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 13(3), pages 279-304, December.
    51. Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
    52. Neaime, Simon, 2016. "Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 14-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    2. Robinson, Justin & Glean, Adrian & Moore, Winston, 2018. "How does news impact on the stock prices of green firms in emerging markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 446-453.
    3. Gok, Ibrahim Yasar & Demirdogen, Yavuz & Topuz, Sefa, 2020. "The impacts of terrorism on Turkish equity market: An investigation using intraday data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    4. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2020. "The effects of geopolitical risks on the stock dynamics of China's rare metals: A TVP-VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Dynamic network of implied volatility transmission among US equities, strategic commodities, and BRICS equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    8. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    9. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predictability of GCC stock returns: The role of geopolitical risk and crude oil returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-249.
    10. Benlagha, Noureddine, 2020. "Stock market dependence in crisis periods: Evidence from oil price shocks and the Qatar blockade," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market volatility; Emerging markets; Event study; Bootstrapping;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:28:y:2016:i:c:p:184-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.