Terrorism, country attributes, and the volatility of stock returns
This study investigates the interplay between terrorism and finance, focusing on the stock return volatility of American firms targeted by terrorist attacks. We find terrorism risk is an important factor in explaining the volatility of stock returns, which should be taken into account when modelling volatility. Using a volatility event-study approach and a new bootstrapping technique, we find volatility increases on the day of the attack and remain significant for at least fifteen days following the day of the attack. Cross-sectional analysis of the abnormal volatility indicates that the impact of terrorist attacks differs according to the country characteristics in which the incident occurred. We find that firms operating in wealthier, or more democratic countries, face greater volatility in stock returns relative to firms operating in developing countries. Firm exposure varies with the nature of country location, with country wealth and level of democracy playing an important role in explaining the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Our results show that despite significant terrorist events this past decade, stock markets in developed countries have not taken terrorist risk into sufficient consideration.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 31 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Axel Dreher & Justina A. V. Fischer, 2010.
"Government Decentralization As A Disincentive For Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(4), pages 981-1002, November.
- Axel Dreher & Justina A. V. Fischer, 2009. "Government decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical analysis," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 313/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina A.V., 2009. "Government Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 4259, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Axel Dreher & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2009. "Government Decentralization as a Disincentive for Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2699, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
- Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
- Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2004.
"Calculating Tragedy: Assessing the Costs of Terrorism,"
CREMA Working Paper Series
2004-23, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, 02.
- Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, "undated". "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing the Costs of Terrorism," IEW - Working Papers 205, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2004. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing the Costs of Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 1341, CESifo Group Munich.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
NBER Working Papers
0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
- Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
- Dubofsky, David A, 1991. " Volatility Increases Subsequent to NYSE and AMEX Stock Splits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 421-431, March.
- Soosung Hwang & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2006.
"Small sample properties of GARCH estimates and persistence,"
The European Journal of Finance,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 473-494.
- Hwang. S. & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of GARCH Estimates and Persistence," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_48, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Matthew J. Clayton & Jay C. Hartzell & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2003.
"The impact of CEO turnover on equity volatility,"
166, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
- Michael R Czinkota & Gary Knight & Peter W Liesch & John Steen, 2010. "Terrorism and international business: A research agenda," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 41(5), pages 826-843, June.
- Vincent Richman & Michael R. Santos & John T. Barkoulas, 2005. "Short- And Long-Term Effects Of The 9/11 Event: The International Evidence," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 947-958.
- Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2006.
"Stock Market Volatility around National Elections,"
Working Paper Series
2006,2, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
- Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006.
"How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
- Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dreher, Axel & Gassebner, Martin, 2008. "Does political proximity to the U.S. cause terror?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 27-29, April.
- Pinar Derin-Güre, 2009. "Does Terrorism Have Economic Roots?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-001, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114.
- Mahfuzul Haque, 2009. "Effect of 9/11 on the conditional time-varying equity risk premium: evidence from developed markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276, May.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
- Drakos, Konstantinos, 2010. "Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 128-135, August.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Shanks, Cheryl & Jacobson, Harold K. & Kaplan, Jeffrey H., 1996. "Inertia and change in the constellation of international governmental organizations, 1981–1992," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(04), pages 593-627, September.
- Jimmy E. Hilliard & Robert Savickas, 2002. "On the Statistical Significance of Event Effects on Unsystematic Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 447-462.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:31:y:2014:i:c:p:87-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.