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The economic cost of terrorism and natural disasters: A deeper analysis of the financial market markets of Pakistan

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  • Najam, Najam Ul Sabeeh
  • Mehmood, Arshad Mehmood

Abstract

Do natural disasters and terrorism affect the financial markets of Pakistan? We aimed to answer this question by studying a large dataset of stock returns of financial markets of Pakistan with respect to natural disasters and terrorist activities. The dataset consists of a total of 289 terrorist events and 45 natural disasters; taken from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Emergency Database (EM-DAT), covering events from the year 2003 to 2017. The event study methodology used to analyze daily, weekly and monthly stock returns of concerned sectors. Calculated the Abnormal returns with the help of market adjusted return model. The findings show that terrorist events have a statistically significant negative impact on the banking sector returns as well as insurance sector returns. Furthermore, the impact on the Pakistan Stock Market is insignificant. The impact of natural disasters on stock markets was not significant however when studied separately the floods have a negative significant impact on bank returns while insignificant for insurance and stock market returns. On the other hand, earthquakes are negatively affecting the stock market but no impact has been reported significant neither for insurance nor for banks returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Najam, Najam Ul Sabeeh & Mehmood, Arshad Mehmood, 2019. "The economic cost of terrorism and natural disasters: A deeper analysis of the financial market markets of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 92278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92278
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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Anwar, Sofia, 2022. "Natural disasters and foreign exchange reserves: The role of renewable energy and human capital," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 838-848.
    2. Jauhar Abbas & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Haroon Hussain & Rana Yassir Hussain & Muhammad Saad & Masud Akhtar, 2021. "Stock Market Reaction towards Terrorism: An Evidence Based on Seasonal Variation in Pakistan," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 3(3), pages 167-177.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Natural Disasters; Stock Market; Financial Sectors; Event Study Methodology; Market Adjusted Returns Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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