IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/revfin/v19y2010i3p128-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Drakos, Konstantinos

Abstract

Motivated by the literature on investor sentiment and assuming that terrorist activity influences investor mood, in this paper we explore whether terrorism exerts a significant negative impact on daily stock market returns in a sample of 22 countries. The employed empirical specifications are based on flexible versions of the World CAPM, allowing for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The results suggest that terrorist activity leads to significantly lower returns on the day a terrorist attack occurs. In addition, the negative effect of terrorist activity is substantially amplified as the level of psychosocial effects increases. On the one hand, this evidence sheds light on the underlying mechanism via which terrorism affects stock markets while on the other hand, it provides further empirical support for the sentiment effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Drakos, Konstantinos, 2010. "Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 128-135, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:19:y:2010:i:3:p:128-135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058-3300(10)00002-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    2. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    3. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    4. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    5. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2004. "Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 435-446, June.
    6. Eldor, Rafi & Melnick, Rafi, 2004. "Financial markets and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, June.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    8. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    9. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. " The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    10. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
    13. Kato, Kiyoshi & Schallheim, James S., 1985. "Seasonal and Size Anomalies in the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 243-260, June.
    14. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    15. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    16. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    17. Carter, David A. & Simkins, Betty J., 2004. "The market's reaction to unexpected, catastrophic events: the case of airline stock returns and the September 11th attacks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 539-558, September.
    18. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    20. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-596, October.
    21. Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammad M. & Sahlstrom, Petri & Aijo, Janne, 2008. "Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: Evidence from 53 equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-46.
    22. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    23. Stracca, Livio, 2004. "Behavioral finance and asset prices: Where do we stand?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 373-405, June.
    24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    3. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:120-132 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Adri'an Carro & Ra'ul Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2015. "Markets, herding and response to external information," Papers 1506.03708, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    5. Essaddam, Naceur & Karagianis, John M., 2014. "Terrorism, country attributes, and the volatility of stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 87-100.
    6. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: An Econometric Investigation of Non-macro Factors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-104/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Guangxi Cao & Wei Xu & Yu Guo, 2015. "Effects of climatic events on the Chinese stock market: applying event analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1979-1992, July.
    8. Chaudhry, Naukhaiz & Roubaud, David & Akhter, Waheed & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Impact of terrorism on stock markets: empirical evidence from the SAARC region," MPRA Paper 84783, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2018.
    9. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-26, April.
    10. repec:eee:quaeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:276-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Randall K. Filer & Dragana Stanišić, 2016. "The Effect of Terrorist Incidents on Capital Flows," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 502-513, May.
    12. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "The impact of foreign equity flows on market volatility during politically tranquil and turbulent times: The Egyptian experience," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 61-77.
    13. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:57-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Stotz, Olaf & Georgi, Dominik, 2012. "A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 159-167.
    15. Bos J.W.B. & Frömmel M. & Lamers M.A.J., 2013. "FDI, terrorism and the availability heuristic for U.S. investors before and after 9/11," Research Memorandum 047, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    16. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmada, 2016. "Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 43-61, March.
    17. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2017. "Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: An Econometric Investigation of Unexpected Non-macroeconomic Factors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-052/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Christos Kallandranis & Konstantinos Drakos, 2011. "Terrorism Shocks and Stock Market Reaction Patterns," EUSECON Policy Briefing 14, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Arif, Imtiaz & Suleman, Tahir, 2014. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    21. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    22. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "Investor sentiment and local bias in extreme circumstances: The case of the Blitz," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 340-350.
    23. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:118-131 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:19:y:2010:i:3:p:128-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.