IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rim/rimwps/26_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams: Reassessing the Informational Value of Betting Odds

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Castellani

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

  • Pierpaolo Pattitoni

    (Department of Management, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

  • Roberto Patuelli

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Rimini, Italy)

Abstract

We analyse the links between soccer match results, bets and stock returns of all listed European soccer teams. Using an event study approach, we measure abnormal returns following wins, ties and losses. Wins are associated with positive abnormal returns, and ties and losses with negative abnormal returns. Additionally, we analyse the role of bets in shaping market reactions to unexpected results, which we find to be non-significant. We propose an alternative econometric approach, using seemingly unrelated regression models, to take into account the problem of overlapping events. While our results concerning match results are confirmed, abnormal returns following unexpected results are found to be statistically significant and to magnify the positive (negative) effects of wins (losses).

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Roberto Patuelli, 2011. "Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams: Reassessing the Informational Value of Betting Odds," Working Paper series 26_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Aug 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:26_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp26_11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    2. Lisa A. Kramer & Mark J. Kamstra & Maurice D. Levi, 2000. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September.
    3. Bert Scholtens & Wijtze Peenstra, 2009. "Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns: an event study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(25), pages 3231-3237.
    4. Himmelmann, A. & Schiereck, D., 2012. "Drug approval decisions: A note on stock liquidity effects," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 59857, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    6. James W. Kolari & Seppo Pynnönen, 2010. "Event Study Testing with Cross-sectional Correlation of Abnormal Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(11), pages 3996-4025, November.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    8. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    9. J. Michael Pinegar, 2002. "Losing Sleep at the Market: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1251-1256, September.
    10. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    13. J. K. Ashton & B. Gerrard & R. Hudson, 2003. "Economic impact of national sporting success: evidence from the London stock exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 783-785.
    14. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
    15. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    16. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    17. Himmelmann, Achim & Schiereck, Dirk, 2012. "Drug approval decisions: A note on stock liquidity effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 640-652.
    18. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    19. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    20. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    21. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    22. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & David Matthews & Charles Sutcliffe, 2012. "Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3435-3452, September.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    25. Nikolaus Beck & Mark Meyer, 2012. "Modeling team performance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 335-356, August.
    26. Georg Stadtmann & Dirk Czarnitzki, 2002. "Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 101-112.
    27. Schipper, K & Thompson, R, 1985. "The Impact Of Merger-Related Regulations Using Exact Distributions Of Test Statistics," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 408-415.
    28. Gennaro Bernile & Evgeny Lyandres, 2011. "Understanding Investor Sentiment: The Case of Soccer," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 357-380, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Godinho & Pedro Cerqueira, 2018. "The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance, and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 230-278, February.
    2. Altuğ Tanaltay & Amirreza Safari Langroudi & Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei & Nihat Kasap, 2021. "Can Social Media Predict Soccer Clubs’ Stock Prices? The Case of Turkish Teams and Twitter," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    3. Andrea Schertler & Jarmo Beurden, 2023. "How relative competitive strength moderates stock price responses after European soccer tournaments," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(8), pages 1385-1414, October.
    4. Oguz Ersan & Ender Demir, 2017. "New Season New Hopes: Off-Season Optimism," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 36-49.
    5. Jerome Geyer-Klingeberg & Markus Hang & Matthias Walter & Andreas Rathgeber, 2018. "Do stock markets react to soccer games? A meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(19), pages 2171-2189, April.
    6. Sascha Kolaric & Zvonimir Pusic & Dirk Schiereck, 2015. "Fußball und Anlegerverhalt en im internationalen Vergleich: Evidenz von 12 Kontinentalmeisterschaften," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 297-328, September.
    7. Tihana Škrinjarić Patrik Barišić, 2019. "Effects of Football Match Results of Croatian National Team on Stock Returns: Evidence from Zagreb Stock Exchange," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 22(1), pages 13-45, May.
    8. Ender Demir & Ugo Rigoni, 2017. "You Lose, I Feel Better," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 58-76, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimic, Nebojsa & Neudl, Manfred & Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2018. "Investor sentiment, soccer games and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 90-98.
    2. Donadelli, Michael & Kizys, Renatas & Riedel, Max, 2017. "Dangerous infectious diseases: Bad news for Main Street, good news for Wall Street?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 84-103.
    3. Brian C. Payne & Jiri Tresl & Geoffrey C. Friesen, 2018. "Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 843-872, August.
    4. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    5. Weng, Pei-Shih, 2018. "Lucky issuance: The role of numerological superstitions in irrational return premiums," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 79-91.
    6. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Demir, Ender & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Chan, Kwok Ho, 2013. "An Examination of Sports Event Sentiment: Microeconomic Evidence from Borsa Istanbul," MPRA Paper 52874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2012. "Local sports sentiment and returns of locally headquartered stocks: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 309-318.
    8. Abudy, Menachem (Meni) & Mugerman, Yevgeny & Shust, Efrat, 2022. "The Winner Takes It All: Investor Sentiment and the Eurovision Song Contest," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Truong, Quang-Thai & Tran, Quynh-Nhu & Bakry, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Nguyen & Al-Mohamad, Somar, 2021. "Football sentiment and stock market returns: Evidence from a frontier market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    10. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    11. Nguyen, Hung T. & Pham, Mia Hang, 2021. "Air pollution and behavioral biases: Evidence from stock market anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    12. Fung, Ka Wai Terence & Demir, Ender & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Chan, Kwok Ho, 2015. "Reexamining sports-sentiment hypothesis: Microeconomic evidences from Borsa Istanbul," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 337-355.
    13. Dimitrios Kourtidis & Željko Šević & Prodromos Chatzoglou, 2016. "Mood and stock returns: evidence from Greece," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 242-258, May.
    14. Elisabete F. Simões Vieira, 2012. "Investor sentiment and market reaction: evidence on 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1), pages 51-76.
    15. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    16. Konstantinos Drakos, 2010. "Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 128-135, August.
    17. CURATOLA, Giuliano & DONADELLI, Michael & KIZYS, Renatas & RIEDEL, Max, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Sectoral Stock Returns: Evidence from World Cup Games," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 267-274.
    18. Matthew Muntifering, 2021. "Air pollution, investor sentiment and excessive returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 110-119, March.
    19. Bouteska, Ahmed, 2019. "The effect of investor sentiment on market reactions to financial earnings restatements: Lessons from the United States," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    20. Ahmad, Tanveer & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Rehman, Mobeen ur, 2014. "Risk or Sentiment: Value and Size Premium under Terrorism," MPRA Paper 60027, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soccer and Bets; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Event Clustering; Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SUR);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:26_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marco Savioli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcfeait.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.