IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v33y2013icp65-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Raza, Syed Ali
  • Jawaid, Syed Tehseen

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of terrorism activities on tourism in Pakistan by using the annual time series data from the period of 1980 to 2010. Johansen and Jeuuselius and ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between terrorism and tourism. Results indicate the significant negative impact of terrorism on tourism in the long run as well as in the short run. Results of rolling window estimation method indicate that terrorism having negative coefficients throughout the sample period. Results of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) suggest that the results will remain the same in the future up to lead 2. Results of Granger causality test, Toda and Yamamoto Modified Wald causality test and variance decomposition test confirm the unidirectional causal relationship between terrorism and tourism, causality runs from terrorism to tourism. Hye and Khan (2012) confirm tourism led growth hypothesis for Pakistan. It is suggested that the government should play a significant role to reduce terrorism activities that should be decreased in the country to boost tourism activities that lead to increase in income from tourism in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Raza, Syed Ali & Jawaid, Syed Tehseen, 2013. "Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 65-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:65-70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313001120
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Qazi Hye, 2012. "Long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1137-1149, June.
    3. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    4. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    5. Ghali, Moheb A, 1976. " Tourism and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 527-538, April.
    6. Haug, Alfred A, 2002. " Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 399-412, September.
    7. Samina Khalil & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Waliullah, 2007. "Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 985-995.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
    9. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Drakos, Konstantinos & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: Evidence from three Mediterranean countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    13. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554.
    14. Isabel Cortés_Jiménez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy," Working Papers 2006.118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Syed Ali Raza & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Sahar Afshan & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2015. "Is stock market sensitive to foreign capital inflows and economic growth?: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 142-164, October.
    2. Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2017. "Dynamics of Military Expenditure and Income Inequality in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 1035-1055, April.
    3. Wasim Qazi & Syed Raza & Syed Jawaid, 2014. "Higher education and growth performance of Pakistan: evidence from multivariate framework," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1651-1665, May.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-592 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Arif, Imtiaz & Suleman, Tahir, 2014. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 58918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Energy Conservation Policies may affect Trade Performance in Pakistan: Confirmation of Feedback Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 57775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-513 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "To Battle Income Inequality, Focus on Military Expenditures: Lesson from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 57773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Energy conservation policies, growth and trade performance: Evidence of feedback hypothesis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-10.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; Time series analysis; Terrorism; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:65-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.