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Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism

Author

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  • Jonathan Benchimol
  • Makram El-Shagi

    ()

Abstract

Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, which should be considered by decision makers. We focus on terrorism, as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty, and use new econometric tests to assess the forecasting performance of market and professional inflation and exchange-rate forecasts in Israel. We show that expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, forecasting performance and abilities of both market-based and expert forecasts are significantly reduced during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering inflation and exchange-rate forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2017. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
  • Handle: RePEc:fds:dpaper:201701
    as

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    File URL: http://cfds.henuecon.education/images/dpaper/WP_1_2017_Forecasting.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Y a-t-il un lien entre les prévisions économiques et les actes terroristes ?
      by john in Economie & Finance on 2017-12-24 20:19:23

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; exchange rate; forecast performance; terrorism; market forecast; expert forecast;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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