IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boi/wpaper/2006.02.html

Asset Market Perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Asaf Zussman
  • Noam Zussman

    (Bank of Israel)

  • Morten Nielsen

Abstract

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has played a salient role in world affairs in recent decades. This paper locates turning points in the conflict since the late 1980s using asset market data from Israel and Palestinian Authority (PA). We find that major escalations in violence, such as the outbreak of the Intifada in 2000, lead to significant declines in asset prices in both Israel and the PA. Conversely, major peace initiatives, such as the Oslo accords in 1993 and the Road Map plan in 2003, lead to substantial increases in asset prices on both sides of the conflict. An additional novel finding is that asset markets respond positively to the success of politicians who favor a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman & Morten Nielsen, 2006. "Asset Market Perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2006.02, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2006.02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://boiwebrepec.azurefd.net/RePEc/boi/wpaper/WP_2006.02.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2006
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
    2. Asher A. Blass & Osnat Peled & Yishay Yafeh, 2004. "The Determinants Of Israel’S Cost Of Capital: Globalization, Reforms And Politics," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 2(1), pages 29-54.
    3. Klor, Esteban & Berrebi, Claude, 2005. "The Impact of Terrorism Across Industries: An Empirical Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 5360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Hall, George J., 2004. "Exchange rates and casualties during the first world war," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1711-1742, November.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    7. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "World War II as reflected on capital markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 187-191, November.
    8. Eldor, Rafi & Melnick, Rafi, 2004. "Financial markets and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, June.
    9. Oosterlinck, Kim, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 326-344, July.
    10. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    11. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    12. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    13. Brown, William O. & Burdekin, Richard C. K., 2000. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 216-231, March.
    14. Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 875-890, April.
    15. Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
    16. Sussman, Nathan & Yafeh, Yishay & Mauro, Paolo, 2006. "Bloodshed or Reforms? The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in 1870-1913 and Today," CEPR Discussion Papers 5528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    18. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-1018, September.
    19. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    20. repec:bla:econom:v:69:y:2002:i:276:p:655-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olga Christodoulaki & Haeran Cho & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2011. "A Reflection of History: Fluctuations in Greek Sovereign Risk between 1914 and 1929," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 50, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Christodoulaki, Olga & Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2011. "A reflection of history: fluctuations in Greek sovereign risk between 1914 and 1929," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2005. "Targeted Killings: Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Counterterrorism Policy," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2005.02, Bank of Israel.
    4. Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
    5. Jeffrey R. Gerlach & Youngsuk Yook, 2016. "Political Conflict and Foreign Portfolio Investment : Evidence from North Korean Attacks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Christodoulaki, Olga & Penzer, Jeremy, 2004. "News from London: Greek government bonds on the London Stock Exchange, 1914-1929," Economic History Working Papers 22335, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    7. Gerlach, Jeffrey R. & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Political conflict and foreign portfolio investment: Evidence from North Korean attacks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 178-196.
    8. Chun-Yu Ho & Dan Li, 2014. "A mirror of history: China's bond market, 1921–42," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(2), pages 409-434, May.
    9. Shoham Amir & Rosenboim Mosi & Malul Miki & Saadon Yossi, 2011. "Core and Periphery -- The Dual Effect of Terror," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Marc Flandreau & Kim Oosterlinck, 2011. "Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities," Working Papers 0005, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    11. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Issues in Identifying Economic Crises: Insights from History," Working Papers CEB 14-014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Melnick, Rafi & Eldor, Rafi, 2010. "Small investment and large returns: Terrorism, media and the economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 963-973, November.
    14. Ali M. Kutan & Mehmet E. Yaya, 2016. "Armed conflict and financial and economic risk: evidence from Colombia," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 159-187, August.
    15. Tobias A. Jopp, 2014. "How did the capital market evaluate Germany’s prospects for winning World War I? Evidence from the Amsterdam market for government bonds," Working Papers 0052, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    16. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2016. "Sovereign debt guarantees and default: Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920–1938," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 272-286.
    17. Chaney, Eric, 2008. "Assessing pacification policy in Iraq: Evidence from Iraqi financial markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Grossman, Richard S. & Imai, Masami, 2009. "Japan's return to gold: Turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 314-323, July.
    19. Nowak, Adam & Sayago-Gomez, Juan, 2018. "Homeowner preferences after September 11th, a microdata approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 330-351.
    20. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lukas A. Schmid, 2021. "Public perceptions and bond markets during the Great War: the case of a neutral country," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 537-561, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2006.02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yossi Yakhin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boigvil.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.