IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

How did the capital market evaluate Germany’s prospects for winning World War I? Evidence from the Amsterdam market for government bonds

  • Tobias A. Jopp

    ()

    (University of Regensburg)

Registered author(s):

    This study uses prices for the German 3 percent imperial loan issued in several tranches since 1890 and still traded during World War I to measure capital market players’ real-time perceptions of the prospects for Germany as the war proceeded. Price data are gathered from the Amsterdam market for government bonds; the Netherlands remained neutral throughout war. Focusing on the window from August 24th 1915 to August 11th 1919, ten (twelve) turning points are identified in a baseline (extended) model. Each implies a significant adjustment of lenders’ confidence in Germany being able, or willing, to service its debts in the future. Two turning points stand out. In early January 1916, the price plummeted by 14.3 percent between the first and eleventh of the month, which was most likely due to the Military Service Act discussed in the British parliament. On September 19th 1918, the price dropped by 17.5 percent compared to the last available price quote from the end of July. This coincides with the Allied Powers’ revival on all fronts since the summer, leading to the ultimate collapse of the German lines.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://ehes.org/EHES_No52.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by European Historical Economics Society (EHES) in its series Working Papers with number 0052.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0052
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ehes.org

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Kim Oosterlinck, 2003. "The Bond Market and the Legitimacy of Vichy France," Working Papers CEB 03-003.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. George J. Hall, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1321, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Ammer, John & Campbell, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Scholarly Articles 3382857, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Borowiecki, Karol J., 2013. "Agglomeration Economies in Classical Music," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 13/2013, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
    5. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    6. Joachim Voth & Thomas Ferguson, 2008. "Betting on Hitler: The value of political connections in Nazi Germany," Economics Working Papers 1183, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-18, September.
    8. Brown, William O, Jr & Burdekin, Richard C K, 2002. "German Debt Traded in London during the Second World War: A British Perspective on Hitler," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(276), pages 655-69, November.
    9. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Niall Ferguson, 2006. "Political risk and the international bond market between the 1848 revolution and the outbreak of the First World War -super-1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 59(1), pages 70-112, 02.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
    12. Weidenmier, Marc D., 2000. "The Market for Confederate Cotton Bonds," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-97, January.
    13. Kim Oosterlinck & John Landon-Lane, 2006. "Hope springs eternal - French bondholders and the Soviet repudiation (1915-1919)," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/142696, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Stephanie Collet, 2013. "The financial penalty for 'unfair' debt: the case of Cuban bonds at the time of independence," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 364-387, August.
    15. Richard Sicotte & Catalina Vizcarra & Kirsten Wandschneider, 2010. "Military conquest and sovereign debt: Chile, Peru and the London bond market, 1876–1890," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 4(3), pages 293-319, October.
    16. Olga Christodoulaki & Haeran Cho & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2012. "A reflection of history: fluctuations in Greek sovereign risk between 1914 and 1929," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 550-571, November.
    17. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272, March.
    19. Marc D. Weidenmier, . "The Market for Confederate Cotton Bonds," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-12, Claremont Colleges.
    20. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Leroy O. Laney, 2008. "Financial market reactions to the overthrow and annexation of the Hawaiian Kingdom: evidence from London, Honolulu and New York," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 2(2), pages 119-141, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Sharp)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.