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Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market

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  • Marc D. Weidenmier

Abstract

This article introduces a new high‐frequency time series of Confederate money prices taken from the newspapers of Richmond and leading cities in the Eastern Confederacy. The new grayback series is tested for turning points. The empirical analysis suggests that turning points in the Confederate grayback market were different from those identified in the Northern greenback market by Willard, Guinnane, and Rosen (1996). It appears that war did not always have symmetric effects on Northern and Southern money prices. Financial and commercial matters fluctuate under the successes and reverses of the war like ebb and tide, and it is not to be wondered that under the great military events that are now transpiring [Gettysburg], there should be a suspension of operations in [gold] trade. (Richmond Examiner July 9. 1863. p. 1)

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  • Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 875-890, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:68:y:2002:i:4:p:875-890
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00463.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862–1879," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 697-717, September.
    2. Pecquet, Gary M., 1987. "Money in the trans-Mississippi confederacy and the confederate currency reform act of 1864," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 218-243, April.
    3. Lebergott, Stanley, 1981. "Through the Blockade: The Profitability and Extent of Cotton Smuggling, 1861–1865," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 867-888, December.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    5. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-1018, September.
    6. Eugene M. Lerner, 1954. "The Monetary and Fiscal Programs of the Confederate Government, 1861-65," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 506-506.
    7. Brown, William O. & Burdekin, Richard C. K., 2000. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 216-231, March.
    8. Weidenmier, Marc D., 2000. "The Market for Confederate Cotton Bonds," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-97, January.
    9. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2001. "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon: Richmond vs. Houston in 1864," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1621-1630, December.
    10. Davis, George K. & Pecquet, Gary M., 1990. "Interest Rates in the Civil War South," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 133-148, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cutsinger, Bryan P. & Rouanet, Louis & Ingber, Joshua S., 2023. "Assignats or death: The politics and dynamics of hyperinflation in revolutionary France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Gary Pecquet & George Davis & Bryce Kanago, 2004. "The Emancipation Proclamation, Confederate Expectations, and the Price of Southern Bank Notes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(3), pages 616-630, January.
    4. Lacroix, Jean & Mitchener, Kris & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2023. "Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 18377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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