Did Nordic Countries Recognize the Gathering Storm of World War II? Evidence from the Bond Markets
This paper analyzes and compares different ways of assessing how people perceived impending threats of war in the past. Conventional Nordic historiography of World War II claims there were few, if any, people in the Nordic countries who perceived a significantly increased threat of war between 1938 and early 1940. At the same time, historical methods face problems when it comes to capturing the often tacitly held beliefs of a large number of people in the past. In this paper, we analyze these assessments by looking at sudden shifts in sovereign debt yields and spreads in the Nordic bond markets at that time. Our results suggest that Nordic contemporaries indeed perceived significant war risk increases around the time of major war-related geopolitical events. While these findings question some ï¿½ but not all ï¿½ of standard Nordic World War II historiography, they also demonstrate the value of analyzing historical market prices to reassess the often tacitly held views and opinions of large groups of people in the past.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Schönberggasse 1, CH-8001 Zürich|
Phone: +41-1-634 21 37
Fax: +41-1-634 49 82
Web page: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frey, Bruno S & Kucher, Marcel, 2001. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect the Second World War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 317-333, August.
- Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996.
"Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-18, September.
- Kristen L. Willard & Timothy W. Guinnane & Harvey S. Rosen, 1995. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," NBER Working Papers 5381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005.
"The effects of war risk on US financial markets,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "The effects of war risk on U.S. financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian P., 2003. "The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets," Working papers 4417-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000.
"History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 468-496, June.
- Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, . "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," IEW - Working Papers 002, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Kim Oosterlinck, 2003.
"The Bond Market and the Legitimacy of Vichy France,"
Working Papers CEB
03-003.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Oosterlinck, Kim, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 326-344, July.
- Kim Oosterlinck, 2003. "The bond market and the legitimacy of Vichy France," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/142693, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Merrick Jr., John J., 2001. "Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1921-1939, October.
- Niall Ferguson, 2006. "Political risk and the international bond market between the 1848 revolution and the outbreak of the First World War -super-1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 59(1), pages 70-112, 02.
- Brown, William O, Jr & Burdekin, Richard C K, 2002. "German Debt Traded in London during the Second World War: A British Perspective on Hitler," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(276), pages 655-69, November.
- Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.