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Do Fences Make Good Neighbors? Evidence from an Insurgency in India

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  • Heidi Kaila

    (Cornell University)

  • Saurabh Singhal

    (Lancaster University)

  • Divya Tuteja

    (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Delhi)

Abstract

India has employed a variety of military, political and economic measures to combat the long running insurgency in Kashmir with little evidence on what contributes to stability in the region. This paper uses a variety of tests to detect structural breaks in the time series for violence over the period 1998-2014. We identify a transition from a high violence regime to a low violence regime that coincides with (i) the fencing of the border with Pakistan (ii) the implementation of a large-scale development program, and (iii) the phasing in of the Indian National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS). Panel data analysis using district-level data further corroborate these findings. Our results highlight the complementary roles of development programs and security in reducing violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2019. "Do Fences Make Good Neighbors? Evidence from an Insurgency in India," HiCN Working Papers 297, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:297
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Multiple Structural Breaks; Nonlinear Time Series Models; Jammu and Kashmir; Fixed Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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