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Does war influence individual expectations?


  • Bozzoli, Carlos
  • Brück, Tilman
  • Muhumuza, Tony


We analyse the effect of mass violent conflict on individual expectations in Northern Uganda. We find that the expectations of the future economic situation are negatively affected by recent conflict while the effect on broadly defined welfare is less robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozzoli, Carlos & Brück, Tilman & Muhumuza, Tony, 2011. "Does war influence individual expectations?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 288-291.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:3:p:288-291 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.08.011

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Willis, Robert J & Rosen, Sherwin, 1979. "Education and Self-Selection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 7-36, October.
    2. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, August.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    4. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875, June.
    5. Clionadh Raleigh & Andrew Linke & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen, 2010. "Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 651-660, September.
    6. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
    7. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2012. "Movers or Stayers? Understanding the Drivers of IDP Camp Decongestion during Post-Conflict Recovery in Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1197, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Tilman Brück, 2012. ""Jobs under Fire": Beschäftigung in von Konflikt bedrohten und fragilen Staaten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(3), pages 125-129.
    3. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 217-252, September.
    4. Yamamura, Eiji, 2012. "Natural disasters and their long-term effect on happiness: the case of the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake," MPRA Paper 37505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bove, Vincenzo & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2014. "Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 113-131.
    6. Tilman Brück & Fernanda Llussá & José Tavares, 2010. "Perceptions, Expectations, and Entrepreneurship: The Role of Extreme Events," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1093, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. d'Errico, Marco & Pietrelli, Rebecca & Romano, Donato, 2016. "Household resilience to food insecurity: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," 2016 Fifth AIEAA Congress, June 16-17, 2016, Bologna, Italy 242328, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    8. Yamamura, Eiji, 2013. "Atomic bombs and the long-run effect on trust: Experiences in Hiroshima and Nagasaki," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-24.
    9. Brück, Tilman & Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José A., 2011. "Entrepreneurship: The role of extreme events," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 78-88.

    More about this item


    Conflict; Expectations; Northern Uganda; War; Welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General


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