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The economic effects of a counterinsurgency policy in India: A synthetic control analysis

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  • Singhal, Saurabh
  • Nilakantan, Rahul

Abstract

Using the synthetic control method, we analyze the economic effects of a unique counterinsurgency response to the Naxalite insurgency in India. Of all the states affected by Naxalite violence, only one state, Andhra Pradesh, raised a specially trained and equipped police force in 1989 known as the Greyhounds, dedicated to combating the Naxalite insurgency. Compared to a synthetic control region constructed from states affected by Naxalite violence that did not raise a similar police force, we find that the per capita NSDP of Andhra Pradesh increased significantly over the period 1989–2000. Further, we find that the effects on the manufacturing sector are particularly strong. Placebo tests indicate that these results are credible and various difference-in-difference specifications using state and industry level panel data further corroborate these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Singhal, Saurabh & Nilakantan, Rahul, 2016. "The economic effects of a counterinsurgency policy in India: A synthetic control analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:45:y:2016:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.08.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Political Instability and Mass Civil Protest," Discussion Papers 2017-03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    2. Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Do fences make good neighbours? Evidence from an insurgency in India," WIDER Working Paper Series 158, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Synthetic control method; Counterinsurgency; Conflict; Naxalite insurgency; India;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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