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Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones

Author

Listed:
  • Eli Berman
  • Joseph Felter
  • Jacob N. Shapiro
  • Erin Troland

Abstract

Most interpretations of prevalent counterinsurgency theory imply that increasing government services will reduce rebel violence. Empirically, however, development programs and economic activity sometimes yield increased violence. Using new panel data on development spending in Iraq, we show that violence reducing effects of aid are greater when (a) projects are small, (b) troop strength is high, and (c) professional development expertise is available. These findings are consistent with a "hearts and minds" model, which predicts that violence reduction will result when projects are secure, valued by community members, and implementation is conditional on the behavior of non-combatants.

Suggested Citation

  • Eli Berman & Joseph Felter & Jacob N. Shapiro & Erin Troland, 2013. "Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones," NBER Working Papers 18674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18674
    Note: PE POL
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    JEL classification:

    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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