The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor' accounted for a considerable portion of the variance of these financial variables over the ten weeks leading up to the onset of war with Iraq.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990.
"Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
- Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003.
"What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?,"
1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002.
"The impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001.
"Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
- Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1387, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Roberto Rigobon, 2001.
"The Curse of Non-Investment Grade Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
8636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven J. Davis & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "War in Iraq versus Containment," NBER Working Papers 12092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008.
"How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
- Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003.
"Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 9361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T. & Werner, Thomas, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.