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Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?

  • Siklos, Pierre L.
  • Bohl, Martin T.
  • Werner, Thomas

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between stock returns and short-term interest rates. Identification of the stock return-interest rate relation is solved by using a new technique that relies on the heteroskedasticity of shocks to stock market returns. We suggest some improvements to the identification technique and its justification, as well as providing some new findings. In particular, we ask whether the Bundesbank, prior to the European Central Bank taking responsibility for monetary policy in 1999, reacted systematically to stock price movements. In contrast to the results for the US, our empirical findings for the 1985 - 1998 period show a positive, but statistically insignificant, parameter for the relationship between German stock returns and short-term interest rates at the daily frequency. The same result is found at the monthly frequency. Nevertheless, the confidence bands are wide enough that we cannot entirely exclude the possibility of a reaction at lower frequencies. The results are extremely robust to alternative methods used to identify changes in heteroskedasticity. The evidence is, therefore, inconsistent with the hypothesis of a systematic reaction of the Bundesbank to every wiggle in German stock prices. Both the historical and institutional evidence are supportive of this conclusion.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2003,14.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4211
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  1. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  2. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  3. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521780254 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Brian Sack & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Is the MCI a Useful Signal of Monetary Policy Conditions? An Empirical Investigation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 413-37, November.
  13. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2002. "Why the Fed should ignore the stock market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar., pages 35-42.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  15. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2001. "Asset prices, financial conditions and the transmission of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  16. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Andrew J. Filardo, 2001. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : some experimental results," Research Working Paper RWP 01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Thomas F. Cosimano & Connel Fullenkamp & Ralph Chami, 1999. "The Stock Market Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 99/22, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
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