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Is the MCI a Useful Signal of Monetary Policy Conditions? An Empirical Investigation

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

Abstract

This paper explores some of the potential advantages and disadvantages of monetary policy indicators based on a linear combination of a selected interest rate and the trade‐weighted exchange rate. The resulting measure, called a monetary conditions index (MCI), may provide a means to increase the transparency and credibility of monetary policy but it can also increase confusion among financial market participants if they view the central bank as reacting too closely to every ‘wiggle’ in the MCI. I argue that the aggregation of financial asset prices into an index can have salutary effects on the conduct of monetary policy because it can filter out some of the ‘noise’ in high frequency data. The danger comes from a central bank that stipulates following solely the MCI as a guide to the stance of monetary policy.

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  • Pierre L. Siklos, 2000. "Is the MCI a Useful Signal of Monetary Policy Conditions? An Empirical Investigation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 413-437, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:413-437
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-2362.00059
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    1. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:52:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rogers, J. M. & Siklos, P. L., 2003. "Foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies: the Canadian and Australian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 393-416, June.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-387, October.
    4. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," Working Papers 52, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    6. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    7. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Designing Appropriate Exchange Rate Regimes for East Asia: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-09, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    8. Siklos, Pierre L., 2006. "Managed floating as a strategy to achieve selected monetary policy objectives," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 447-464.
    9. Ndiaye, Ndeye Djiba & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is inflation targeting the proper monetary policy regime in a dual banking system? new evidence from ARDL bounds test," MPRA Paper 79420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pierre L. Siklos, 2009. "As Good As It Gets? The International Dimension to Canada's Monetary Policy Strategy Choices," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 292, July.
    11. Samuel Howorth & Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos, 2019. "Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 191-217, April.

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